Arnold’s Ramblings 1-24-2012

Newt Gingrich has won the South Carolina primary decisively. What does this mean? It would appear as though the Republican establishment and the voters do not agree (at least in South Carolina). Florida is one week from today and the early indications are that Gingrich will win in Florida as well. But Mitt Romney has one major advantage: money – and lots of it.

The release of Mitt Romney’s tax returns this morning should generate all kinds of excitement. The early indications were that Mr. Romney had not paid his “fair share” of taxes. If all of his income was from capital gains and dividends, then Mr. Romney just followed the tax code. If Mr. Romney did any fancy tax dodges, which is only available to the uber-rich, then Mr. Romney may have a serious problem. The issues previously raised that he invested in offshore entities is a non-starter since Mr. Romney paid all the applicable taxes on the income.

The State of the Union address is tonight, or the first acceptance speech by President Obama for accepting the nomination for re-election by the Democrat Party. This should be a first look at the re-election campaign and all of the promises to be made by the President. And as the early indications have shown, this campaign should be the nastiest in about 100 years.

  • The DJIA looks to be heading lower, though we may have one more rally before the major correction coming.
  • Gold still looks higher before it too has a major correction.
  • Oil is holding, but could still rise to $120 the barrel.
  • The dollar looks significantly higher over the next couple of years.
  • Interest rates are still in a trading range.
  • Real estate pricing still looks about 20% lower in most markets. Before the real estate collapse ends; most markets will be down at least 50% – some like Florida, Nevada and Arizona, much more.
  • The economy seems to be limping along, still up maybe 2% or so, with the second quarter or third quarter at the latest for GDP to drop.



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Arnold Goldin
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