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Arnold’s Ramblings 1-18-2012

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For all of you long term readers of Arnold’s Ramblings, you recognize that Arnold is generally confused by everything, so let Arnold explain to you his latest confusion:

As Arnold writes this, Newt Gingrich and a raft of Republicans have been and are attacking Mitt Romney over Romney’s business career at the evil (at least that is what opposition Republicans say) Bain Capital. The fallout from this dialogue is that many Democrats – amongst them Steven Rattner, former auto czar for President Obama – have publicly defended Romney’s record at Bain Capital. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (DNC Chairperson), President Obama, David Axelrod (President Obama’s campaign chief) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have all made the issue an attack on capitalism. So, Arnold asks how can Steven Rattner and all of the Forbes 400 and upper 2 percent Democrats support anti-capitalist positions taken by the leaders of their party? Arnold just doesn’t understand it!

Arnold has a theory he has been working on for weeks: at some point soon, the Republicans will recognize that most of the 2012 rich are Democrats and when the Democrats propose tax increases for carry (private equity and hedge funds), passive income, capital gains and incomes over $250,000, the Republicans will say “sure.” Then the upper 2 percent (Democrats) will suddenly be paying 40 percent, 75 percent, or maybe even more than 100percent more in income taxes. At that point, suddenly many progressive Democrats will become reactionary conservatives.

  • The DJIA should be peaking soon, if not already.
  • Gold could rise to maybe $2000 before a major correction.
  • Oil could still rise to maybe $120.
  • Interest rates are still in a trading range and should stay low for some time.
  • The dollar should start to rise significantly.
  • Real estate pricing looks ready for another fall.
  • The economy looks lower into the 2nd quarter and beyond.


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