Israel's miscalculation, Biden's appeasement: A disaster cocktail

Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.

“You don’t play your hand you play the hand of the man across the table.” —-— James Bond, Casino Royale

“You don’t go to where the puck is. You go to where it is going.” —— Wayne Gretzky

How could the Israeli intelligence system have gotten it so wrong? Their legendary intelligence agencies including the Mossad and Aman were held in the highest regard by the world’s military establishments. They were known for the wizardry of their spy networks, their technical acumen and their ability to see around the corner into the Arab World.

How then could such a huge blind spot have developed only a short distance away from Mossad headquarters, right in their own backyard? Could it be that they had begun to believe their own publicity? Were they suffering from a kind of victory disease that bred self-congratulations and overconfidence? Were they distracted by unrest in the West Bank? Did the long period of inactivity from Hamas lull them into a relaxed complacency as it was probably intended to do? Did Mao Zedong’s observation that “an arrogant opponent is easy to beat” apply even to the savvy and battle-hardened Israelis?

The networks, the agents, the systems and the overall program that compose the Israeli intelligence service worked well for the challenges they faced five, three, even two years ago. But the early evidence seems to suggest that the enemy had changed dramatically in the last two years and Israel failed to adjust to the new threat that was being developed in the deepest secrecy. If that is true then how had the security environment changed and what exactly was the critical difference?

A MORE DANGEROUS ENEMY

The Trump administration, while not perfect, did make the shrewd and well-informed decision to impose tight economic sanctions on the Iranian economy. This was done because the fanatical regime is a radical hotbed of state-sponsored terrorism that is plaguing the Middle East.

As a result of the U.S. government’s “maximum pressure campaign” Iran’s “Gross Official Reserves” fell from 122.5 billion in 2018 to an amazingly low 4 billion in 2020.

Iranian officials stated that the sanctions had cost the country two hundred billion dollars in lost revenue. (90 percent of their oil revenue had been lost.) Millions of Iranians were protesting in the streets because of the economic hardships. The sanctions were crippling the economy and threatening to destabilize the country even to the point of a possible regime change.

That of course was not to be. As demonstrated in Hong Kong, China, Russia and in Iran itself, brutally psychopathic regimes are able to use their secret police and undercover agents to silence and suppress opposition parties with great efficiency. But, the movement at least served to distract the Iranian leaders from adventurism beyond their borders.

All of that changed under the Biden administration. The liberal Democrats in the White House lifted the Trump-imposed sanctions and allowed Tehran to sell their petroleum on the world market. This created an enormous flow of cash and took the Iranians back to their pre-sanction days with extensive financial reserves of well over one hundred billion dollars. The regime therefore went from being humbled and cash-starved to swimming in a wave of great wealth. They were transformed from a crippled enemy to an aggressive and dangerous antagonist. Critics called it a foolish appeasement.

Aggravating the situation even more were the negotiations for the normalization of relations that had begun between Mohammad Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and Israel. Unthinkable even a few years ago, this new communication between old enemies promised to be an epiphany for a permanent peace in the Middle East. However, it was also intended to encircle and neutralize the aggressive regime in Iran.

It was at this point that the leadership in Israel should have been asking themselves a critical question: What were the radicals in Iran going to do with their newly acquired cash reserves? With a history of instigating terrorism in the region and of now being backed into a corner by Saudi Arabia, what would their next move be?

They might have also asked themselves what North Korea and China would do as well. There is evidence that Chinese technology given to Hamas was used to defeat Israel’s electronic surveillance system. The answer to these questions might be problematic. But the answer certainly would not be they will do nothing.

John W. Hall at the University of Wisconsin makes the observation that rarely are surprise attacks total surprises. “In hindsight, it often emerges that the indicators for an attack were present but overlooked or not placed in proper context.“

The president of Egypt claims to have notified the Netanyahu administration three days before the attack that something big was coming. He and his staff were surprised by the lack of response. Israel denies receiving any such notification.

TWO UNNECESSARY WARS?

In the final analysis, a reasonable and persuasive argument can be made that the war in Ukraine and the war with Israel could both have been avoided if Donald Trump were still President of the United States. A summary of the pivotal points regarding each conflict is as follows:

The War in Ukraine. There was little or no aggression on the part of Putin when Donald Trump was in the White House. Trump told Putin that if he invaded Ukraine that the U.S. would bomb Moscow. Putin understood the message. But the Russians saw weakness and opportunity in Biden’s bungling of Afghanistan. With high expectations of success the invasion of Ukraine was therefore launched.
The War in Israel 2023. The appeasement program from the Biden Administration of allowing billions of petro dollars to flow into the radical theocracy of Iran was like pouring gasoline (or more specifically petroleum) on a smoldering fire. What could possibly go wrong? This was a reckless and myopic mistake that the previous administration would never have made.

The final point to be made is this: The world would be a far better place if the United States had been led by a wise and practical leader rather than a bumbling and corrupt appeaser. There is a lesson here for all nations of the world to learn and to carefully remember.

Jared Knott, author of Tiny Blunders/Big Disasters: Thirty-Nine Tiny Mistakes That Changed the World Forever. Knott was a decorated combat infantry officer in Vietnam in the First Air Cavalry Division.

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