The next American civil war

Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.

The events this week, of the excessive and theatric use of force to go after a former President, created a surge of cries of the politicization of the FBI from the right.  In many respects, it backfired on the left, making many see President Trump as a sympathetic figure. While there were the usual internet outcries for revolt, eventually calmer heads prevailed, though there were inevitable flashpoints as a result. The left wanted that overreaction – they wanted Trump’s supporters to strike back to provide them with the validation and justification to crack down hard.  Remember, this is an administration that has labeled concerned parents as domestic terrorists and has said that the Betsy Ross flag is a hate symbol. This, however, was not the tipping point that will send the United States into a new civil war.

We haven’t hit that tipping point yet. 

In the first American Civil War, that tipping point was the election of Abraham Lincoln to the Presidency. It was nothing that Lincoln did, but the fear in the south of what he might do – abolish slavery – that was their trigger point for eventually overreacting the igniting the war by firing on Fort Sumpter. Much like Trump’s banning from Twitter, it wasn’t over what he did but out of fear of what he might do. It was the same with Lincoln’s election. IT was the fear that slavery would end. 

So what would light the fuse of the next American Civil War? One, it would have to be major and impactful.  A misguided soul with a gun might be such an impetus in the wrong circumstance. Two, it would have to be something that, all on its own, threatens to change the power structure in the deep state to the point where they are compelled to fight to retain control.  While a random violent act might do it, so might an election.  

Imagine if Trump runs in 2024 and wins. The left already rioted in the streets the first time he won.  If he were to do it again, violence is all but assured.  He represents the greatest threat that the Washington insiders can conceive of – a person they cannot control, backed by the people, who has made it his mantra to dismantle the bloated federal government. He’s not in anyone’s pocket. Much like the election of Abraham Lincoln, their manufactured fear would be more than enough to rise up against him.  

So what would be the demarcation in such a conflict? The first Civil War was one that pitted state versus state. This time the lines of the conflict would not be so crisp.  Urban areas, which have already embraced the concept of sanctuary cities that ignore the laws, tend to be more blue while rural areas tend to be more red.  Some states as a whole might join one side or another, but they would have to contend with partisan activities coming from their big cities.  

Military involvement out of the Pentagon would not be likely – there are laws in place that limit the use of the armed forces against American citizens. Those same rules do not apply in the deployment of the National Guard. State governors would deploy them and their heavily armed and armored police forces to attempt to restore order or suppress perceived enemies.  There would likely be defections in the ranks if some guardsmen were deployed against targets that were their in their own homes or cities. It would be messy and confusing in those opening months. 

Local militias would emerge on both sides. ANTIFA would see any such conflict as an opportunity and would quickly act, as would a number of veteran groups and citizens. The protracted War on Terror has seeded our nation with trained combat professionals with firepower to defend themselves – a dangerous combination.  

The mainstream media and Big Tech would leverage this opportunity to completely black out any narrative against their defined interests.  They would likely provide the left with lists of names of individuals to be rounded up based on their past social media history.  We have all witnessed the weaponization of social media in the last few years. Fact checkers would be elevated to the role of spymasters in such a struggle. 

While Lincoln’s Civil War was often termed as, ‘Brother against brother,’ this conflict would be of neighbor against neighbor and the examples of families shattered by such a war would be far more commonplace.  

This war would not be about large armies in the field marching against each other. It would not be fought to control territory as much as control resources such as energy production, water, internet access, etc.  The lack of battling armies would not make the conflict any less bloody.  

Of course, this is all speculation…based on the reality of the world we live in. While we should always hope for calmer heads to prevail, the number of those calmer heads seems to be dwindling…and with that a greater risk of a Second American Civil War. 


Blaine Pardoe is a New York Times Bestselling and award winning author. He is a regular contributor to American Thinker, PJ Media, American Greatness, Bizpac Review, and other conservative sites. His most recent works include the conservative political thriller Blue Dawn tells the story of the violent overthrow of the government by Progressives. The sequel, A Most Uncivil War, is currently available. His book, The Democratic Party Playbook 2022 Edition was an Amazon bestseller for new political humor. 


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Blaine L. Pardoe
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