First primaries after overturn of Roe suggest SCOTUS ruling not the hot-button issue Dems are expecting

(Video Credit: Fox News)

Many Democrats are hoping to lean on the Supreme Court’s recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade to invigorate voters in the November mid-term elections but if Tuesday’s primaries are any indication, their chances of a blue wave are quickly evaporating into thin air.

“What I have seen in every state with one exception is that Democratic turnout either is noticeably down or flat, while Republican turnout in almost every state is noticeably up relative to 2018,” Republican polling expert John Couvillon told Fox News Digital.

The 2018 midterm elections in Illinois drew over 1.3 million Democrats to vote in the 2018 cycle. Turnout for Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary was down nearly 40 percent with just over 800,000 Democrats voting and nearly all of the ballots counted.

New York’s Tuesday primary was an equally bad omen for the left with just over 850,000 turning in a ballot this year compared to the 1.5 million Democrats that voted in 2018’s gubinatorial primary. 95% of the votes have already been tallied in that state.

“When you’re talking about the impact of Roe v. Wade on voting, I did not see much if any impact on the June 28 vote,” Couvillon said. “That was the same story in early May, when the draft Dobbs decision leaked.” Couvillon said he didn’t see more Democrats appearing in early voting in Georgia and North Carolina, but Republicans still were motivated to participate.”

According to Couvillon, the tables have turned and “In the states that have had primaries so far the partisan vote in 2018 in those states was 53% Democratic. This year it’s 53% Republican, so you have this swing.”

RealClearPolitics co-founder, Tom Bevan indicated Republicans and Democrats are in completely different headspaces, which in turn is driving conservatives to action and liberals, not.

“First, throughout the primary season we’ve seen Republicans more engaged and energized than democrats — that enthusiasm gap is also reflected in the polling data,” Bevan said.

“2018 was a big year for Dems, they were furious about Trump, and they had a competitive primary here to take on [former Illinois governor] Bruce Rauner. This year is the opposite: [incumbent Gov. JB] Pritzker did not face any real opposition, which may also account for the lower turnout,” he noted.

In Bevan’s opinion, the bottom line for the left is that “”Democrats are depressed, quite frankly.”

He doesn’t think the abortion issue will resuscitate them back to life either.

“Every time the Democrats thought that they had an issue that would be able to change the dynamics of the election, it hasn’t happened,” said Bevan. “People who think that this decision, that Roe is going to fundamentally alter the dynamics of the election — as long as we remain in a situation with 8% inflation and $6 a gallon gas, I think they’re kidding themselves.”

As it turns out, it doesn’t look like abortion is the hot-button issue prominent Democrats would like it to be in order to get out the vote come November.

“Things like Roe v. Wade are more of the issues of the moment, as opposed to something much more wide-ranging, which impacts every American family,” Couvillon said. “Abortion is a very niche kind of issue that might matter in Democratic strongholds, but in a lot of the country it doesn’t.”

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Ashley Hill

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