A new poll has found that, among those Americans who didn’t vote in the 2020 presidential election, more than double would be inclined to vote for former President Donald Trump over current President Joe Biden in the upcoming 2024 election.
The poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, a “B/C” rated pollster whose predictions have been right 78 percent of the time, specifically asked, “If the candidates for the Presidential Election on November 5, 2024 are as follows, for whom will you vote?”
The two candidates listed were Trump and Biden. Among those who “didn’t vote,” 34 percent chose Trump, 33 percent chose “don’t know,” only 14 percent chose Biden and the rest chose other parties.
Among those who voted for Trump in 2020, 87 percent (down from 89 percent) would choose him again, while 82 percent (down from 85 percent) would choose Biden again. In other words, Biden lost more voters since 2020 than Trump did.
The overall results were not as favorable to Trump.
“With regard to the 2024 Presidential Election, our latest hypothetical voting intention finds Joe Biden and Donald Trump neck and neck,” according to Redfield & Wilton Strategies.
“After weighting by likelihood to vote, 41% of respondents say they would vote for Biden (down 2%) and 41% say they would vote for Trump (no change) if they were the candidates in 2024. A further 11% say they don’t know how they would vote (no change).”
However, based on all additional factors, Redfield & Wilton Strategies believes “an overall tie in the popular vote would most likely mean a Donald Trump victory in the Electoral College.”
An “even more favorable result” would be likely, according to the pollster, were current Vice President Kamala Harris to run instead of Biden.
“If Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were the 2024 nominees, 43% of Americans say they would vote for Trump (up 2%) and 40% say they would vote for Harris (down 1%). In this scenario, 10% say they don’t know how they would vote (down 1%),” the pollster notes.
Whether or not Trump could actually pull through in either case would likely be determined in part on how he handles himself. Post-2020 analysis suggested that he’d he’d alienated many white suburban voters, including independents, with his brash rhetoric.
“Mr. Biden’s biggest cache of additional voters came from big counties — urban and suburban — that are mostly white, where his support increased substantially from Hillary Clinton’s vote in 2016. This includes counties like DuPage in Illinois, Macomb outside Detroit and Montgomery outside Philadelphia,” The New York Times wrote in the wake of the 2020 race.
But on the other hand, the data shows that he also gained a slew of minority voters.
“He confounded expectations … by adding a substantial number of votes in areas with a lot of Hispanic residents,” as noted by the Times. He also picked up black votes. In fact, he picked up votes among everybody but white people:
The black vote picture is starting to be clear – Trump made decent inroads.
According to CNN exits, McCain got 4%; Romney got 6%; Trump 2016 got 8%; Trump 2020 got 12%.
— Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) November 4, 2020
In 2016, Trump got a smaller % of white vote and a higher % of black vote than did Romney. Abilene, Tx, the city of over 100K that most voted for Trump, recently elected its 1st black mayor.
In 2020, Trump improved his vote in all major demos–except white men.
— Larry Elder (@larryelder) January 20, 2021
Unfortunately, Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ poll did not look at race. It did, however, offer further insights on the American people’s perception of Biden.
“The latest research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies finds that 48% of Americans disapprove and 38% approve of President Joe Biden’s overall job performance as President. His net approval rating, at -10%, is five points lower than in our polling on 8-9 January, when 44% disapproved and 39% approved of Biden’s performance,” according to the Pollster.
This fits with other polling data. The president hit a record low average approval rating of 39.8 percent on Wednesday, Feb. 9th. It’s since bounced back to 40.6 percent, but is expected — much like a downward trending stock — to fall further as time passes.
One of the most devastating recent polls came from CNN, a pro-Democrat network. Released Thursday, the stunning poll found that nearly “6 in 10 Americans disapprove of how Joe Biden is handling his presidency, with most of that group saying there’s literally nothing Biden has done since taking office that they approve of.”
The poll provoked massive rage from what critics say is the Democrat Party’s “delusional base”:
They don’t approve of ending war, lower UE, higher stock market, lower jobless claims, respect of foreign countries, or infrastructure bill?
— Billyisvaccinated (@Billyisvaxxed) February 10, 2022
Done more than 4 yrs of trump in one year!
— Greg Hayes (@Gregrific) February 10, 2022
Don’t believe in polls, I think he has done alot considering the circumstances he has in the senate
— Patrick Dean Maxey (@pkdnmaxey) February 10, 2022
“I’m hard pressed to think of a single thing he has done that benefits the country,” wrote one survey respondent.” Wonder if this person experienced a serious blow to the head (see: job numbers, the continued push for vaccinations, and the infrastructure bill.)
— D. Noble (@DNoble334281) February 10, 2022
I approve of everything he’s done and I’m so happy he’s my President! pic.twitter.com/nxZRn0fHDa
— Brian (@UNAGRAD85) February 10, 2022
If Trump does win in 2024, it’s expected that these people will once again have a mental breakdown …
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