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Leftist filmmaker Michael Moore cast doubts Thursday that national polling showing Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden way ahead of President Donald Trump was accurate.
He also said that polling in swing states, almost all of which shows Biden comfortably ahead, are likely wrong, too, meaning races are much tighter than polling shows.
In an appearance with The Hill TV’s “Rising” program, Moore said it was “awful news” that the president has, according to polls, cut Biden’s lead “in half” in recent weeks by seven points, down from being “16 points” behind according to one survey.
“Trump has tightened virtually every one of these swing states to the point where- what are they saying this morning?… ‘Biden’s five points ahead in Wisconsin… maybe three points ahead in Florida, two points ahead in Arizona’… Listen, don’t believe these polls,'” said the filmmaker.
“The Trump vote is always being undercounted. Pollsters — when they actually call the Trump voter — the Trump voter is very suspicious of the ‘Deep State’ calling them and asking them who they’re voting for,” he continued.
“It’s all fake news to them, remember. It’s not an accurate count,” Moore continued. “I think the safe thing to do, this is not scientific…whatever they’re saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half, right now, in your head. Cut it in half, and now you’re within the four-point margin of error.”
He then called the president an “evil genius” for being able to pull out victories despite seemingly always being behind.
In late August, Moore warned Democrats that the enthusiasm gap was much greater for President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence than it was for the former vice president and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris of California.
“Sorry to have to provide the reality check again, but when CNN polled registered voters in August in just the swing states, Biden and Trump were in a virtual tie. In Minnesota, it’s 47-47. In Michigan, where Biden had a big lead, Trump has closed the gap to 4 points,” the award-winning filmmaker wrote on Facebook.
“Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you’ve placed in the DNC to pull this off?” Moore added.
“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” he noted further.
“Don’t leave it to the Democrats to get rid of Trump. YOU have to get rid of Trump. WE have to wake up every day for the next 67 days and make sure each of us are going to get a hundred people out to vote. ACT NOW!”
Moore was one of the few liberals who correctly predicted a Trump victory in 2016.
Trump’s rallies, when he has been able to have them amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, have generally been well-attended, raucous affairs, with reports online of supporters waiting in line sometimes more than 24 hours to get into the venue.
Conversely, social media posts of Biden and Harris rallies show sparsely attended events often with only a few dozen supporters standing in circles on the ground to ensure social distancing.
A Joe Biden rally. Seriously. pic.twitter.com/MftpWabn9c
— Bo Snerdley (@BoSnerdley) October 27, 2020
It’s not just Moore who believes Trump voters have been under-sampled in polling. Robert Cahaly, head of The Trafalgar Group — the only national non-partisan firm that found Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania — says the president has small leads again in those states.
“There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it’s not even a contest,” Cahaly told The Hill, noting that it’s “quite possible” the polling industry is on a path for another disastrous miss as it was in 2016 when all national surveys had Hillary Clinton ahead by a lot.
Jim Lee, with Susquehanna Polling and Research, agrees.
“There are a lot of voters out there that don’t want to admit they are voting for a guy that has been called a racist, that submerged Trump factor is very real,” Lee said this week on WFMZ’s Business Matters. “We have been able to capture it and I’m really disappointed others have not.”
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