Prediction market blocks Swalwell ally from betting on California governor’s race

An ally of Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell has reportedly been blocked from placing online bets on the 2026 California gubernatorial race, according to Politico.

Major Democratic donor Stephen Cloobeck, who recently dropped out of the race, shared screenshots with Politico of his failed attempts to place wagers on Kalshi, a web-based prediction market platform. Cloobeck said he tried to bet roughly $1,000 on Swalwell winning the race and another estimated $2,000 against fellow candidate and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan losing, but neither trade went through.

Screenshots show the site informing Cloobeck that he is “currently restricted from trading this market.”

The restriction comes months after Cloobeck was able to bet on himself while still a candidate. He shared a screenshot with Politico showing that in October 2025 he wagered an estimated $4,750 on himself winning the election on Kalshi.

A spokesperson for the betting site, Elisabeth Diana, told Politico that politicians are generally “prohibited from trading on their own elections” but declined to comment specifically on the new restriction against Cloobeck.

“What did I do wrong? I’m not a candidate, and I’m not part of any campaign. I’m not getting paid by any campaign,” Cloobeck told Politico. “Why didn’t they ban me betting against myself?”

Just a month after Cloobeck was able to bet on himself, the donor announced he was ending his campaign for California’s top job and instead endorsed Swalwell’s run. After the endorsement, state records show Cloobeck contributed the maximum $39,200 to Swalwell‘s campaign.

With a handful of Democratic candidates in the race, the party has struggled to gain traction among voters. None secured a majority at the state convention, leaving no candidate with an official party endorsement.

Since entering late in 2025, however, Swalwell has outperformed other Democrats in polls. A new survey from IVP released Monday shows Swalwell in second place for the June primary with 17.8% support, trailing GOP gubernatorial candidate Chad Bianco, who leads with 23.2%.

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