Number cruncher Nate Silver releases first 2022 midterm forecast and it’s worse than Dems thought

In just over four months, voters will get their first chance to render a nationwide verdict on President Joe Biden as well as ruinous Democrat one-party rule in what many are expecting to be an electoral earthquake that will strip the fully radicalized party of power, perhaps for a generation.

With Americans grappling with the real economic concerns of record gas prices and crushing inflation while the out-of-touch Biden blames all of the nation’s problems on Vladimir Putin, the electorate is growing increasingly restive and now political prognosticator Nate Silver has released his first forecast for the upcoming midterm elections and Democrats, especially in the House of Representatives, have good reason to be worried.

The number-crunching Silver, who runs the FiveThirtyEight blog predicts that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will soon be chased from leadership with Republicans on track to establish a solid majority in the House, putting the odds at 87 percent that they will be victorious in November.

According to Silver, “Republicans have an 87 percent chance of taking over the House, according to the Deluxe version of our model. That’s far from certain, but Democrats are fighting the odds: Their 13 percent chances are equivalent to tossing a coin and having it come up tails three times in a row.”

(Image: Screengrab/FiveThirtyEight)

While Americans may finally be on the verge of getting some relief from the spiteful Pelosi, her vindictive committees, and the vicious attack dogs of AOC and her Squad with a likely return of adult control to the lower chamber of Congress, the odds aren’t quite as favorable in the Senate which Silver pegs as a toss-up, saying that the Democrats “appear to have stronger candidates in a handful of key races” including Pennsylvania where TV doctor Mehmet Oz faces off against local favorite Lt. Gov. John Fetterman to fill the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pat Toomey.

(Image: Screengrab/FiveThirtyEight)

“Republicans don’t have any surefire pickups, meanwhile. Our model regards their best chances as being in Georgia, but that race is rated as a toss-up. And the races in Arizona and New Hampshire merely lean toward the Democratic incumbent, meaning they are still highly plausible GOP pickup opportunities,” according to Silver.

When it comes to governors, Silver forecasts that there is an “83 percent chance that Republicans end up with a majority of governorships” including the hugely populous states of Texas and Florida where GOP incumbents are likely to crush unimpressive competitors like Beto O’Rourke and Nikki Fried/Charlie Crist.

(Image: Screengrab/FiveThirtyEight)

Noting that “incumbency is a powerful force in gubernatorial races” to predict that authoritarian lockdown queen Gretchen Whitmer is likely to prevail in Michigan, Silver forecasts that “Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is an 86 percent favorite to hold on against Democrat Stacey Abrams, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is a 95 percent favorite against Democrat Beto O’Rourke. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a co-favorite with former President Donald Trump to be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, is also a 94 percent favorite to win a second term,” all high-profile races that will be given national attention.

Democrat candidates probably shouldn’t expect much help from the deeply unpopular Biden whose approval ratings are locked in a downward spiral with no bottom in sight while the country circles the drain as a result of his historically dismal presidency.

If the numbers hold up – four months is an eternity in politics – Democrats are rapidly approaching a day of reckoning.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Nate Silver was mistakenly called “Nick” in an earlier version of this story that was published prematurely. We apologize and have corrected the error. 

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