Chris Wallace not sold on Democrats taking over the Senate: ‘You would need a blue wave’

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While there’s a distinct possibility that Democrats may take the White House come next Tuesday, the chances of them regaining the Senate remain so low that even Fox News host Chris Wallace appears to think the idea is almost preposterous.

You would need a blue wave — you would need all of the races that are too close to call right now going Democrat for them to take control of the Senate,” he said Friday  morning on Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom.”

He cautioned though that it “could” happen. While that’s true, the fact is that virtually anything “could” happen at any given time. Realistically speaking, however, the chances of a Senate takeover are extraordinarily low outside of an unexpected blue wave.

And as Wallace also noted during Friday’s segment, the numbers just don’t bode that well for Democrats.

Listen to his analysis below:

“The current balance of power is 53-47. In Alabama, the incumbent Democrat Doug Jones is considered almost certain to lose. … That now makes it 54-46, so Democrats are going to need a net pickup of four Senate seats plus Kamala Harris is the vice president to break ties, or five if Donald Trump wins,” he said.

If Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice-presidential nominee Kamala Harris win the race, Harris will have the authority to break any Senate vote ties, meaning Democrats would only need four seats to hold majority power.

But if President Donald Trump wins the race, then Democrats would need five full votes to hold majority control, according to Wallace’s analysis.

It’s not clear whether Wallace’s analysis took into consideration the outcome of Harris’s own seat on the Senate. Because of California law, the California’s senator replacement (if she’s elected vice president) would be assigned by Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Despite the numbers not really looking good for Democrats, both Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Wallace seem to believe Democrats ultimately have a 50 percent shot at retaking the Senate.

“It’s a 50-50 proposition. We have a lot of exposure. This is a huge Republican class. … There’s dogfights all over the country,” McConnell said during a campaign stop in Kentucky this past Wednesday.

Note that he’s been saying the same thing for at least two months now:

Questioned about these remarks, Wallace described them as “honest,” though he conceded that there may have been some “spin” meant to drum up more support.

“To a certain degree that’s spin because he wants to get Republican votes out. We think that the vast majority — if you believe voter registration — that the vast majority of the votes that have turned out … are going to be pro-leaning democratic probably,” he said.

So he really needs a big — and the president needs — a big turnout on election day. Those tend to be more pro-Trump, more Republican voters.”

What Wallace neglected to mention is that, while Democrats have always led in early voting, this year their advantage has dropped sharply. Take what’s happening in Florida.

“After weeks of Democrats outvoting them by mail, Republican voters stormed early voting precincts in person this week, taking large bites out of their opponents’ historic lead in pre-Election Day ballots,” Politico reported on Oct. 24th.

“The Democratic advantage was still huge as of Saturday morning: 387,000 ballots. But that’s a 21 percent reduction from Democrats’ high water mark, set three days prior. The election is in 10 days.”

In some localities, Democrats are reportedly also “under-performing” in absentee ballots:

As noted by Wallace, this is the opposite of historical trends. If, conversely, trends remain the same on election day and mostly Republicans show up to vote — which is expected given the left’s fears over the coronavirus — it would bode well for the GOP.

Of course, the assumption is that Democrats are voting for Democrats, and Republicans are voting for Republicans. But because of the #WalkAway movement — as well as the existence of “Never Trump” Republicans — it’s impossible to know for sure.

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Vivek Saxena

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