The look on CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett’s face says it all.
Prior to President Donald Trump’s campaign launch rally Tuesday evening in Orlando, Florida, Garrett briefly spoke with the president’s 2020 campaign manager, Brad Parscale, about current polling data.
Though polling data appears to show the president losing, Parscale maintained in his interview that these polls mean nothing.
“I just think the country is too complex now to call a couple hundred people and ask them what they think,” he said. “There are so many ways and different people who show up and vote now.”
“The way turnout works now. The abilities we have now to turn out voters. The polling can’t understand that. And that’s why the polling was so wrong in 2016. It was 100% wrong. Nobody got it right — not one public poll. The reason why — it’s not 1962 anymore.”
In other words, polling is dead.
Listen, and pay attention to Garrett’s face:
The CBS correspondent’s shock says it all.
Parscale’s remarks were prompted by questions from Garrett specifically about the leaked internal poll numbers from Trump’s campaign that showed him losing.
Never mind that Tim Murtaugh, the campaign’s director of communications, had already confirmed last week that this polling data was wholly inaccurate:
We have new data – not the same as the alleged internal polling that was old, anonymously sourced, inaccurately described, and subject to erroneous media speculation. The new data tested issues Dems are running on. In all 17 states polled, POTUS leads.
— Tim Murtaugh (@TimMurtaugh) June 12, 2019
According to Parscale, mind you, none of this matters. Is he right? Time-wise, yes.
Renowned statistician Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, argued in a tweet on Friday that “the margin of error on general election polls conducted this far out is around… 25 points!”
And given that polls show Trump losing to various Democrat presidential candidates by no more than 9 to 10 percentage points, this means the president is effectively tied with them.
But even without the time factor in consideration, the president’s campaign manager could be right. Note for instance what he said about the 2016 presidential election.
Polls conducted right before the election showed then-Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton easily defeating Trump. Yet she lost by a whopping 74 electoral points.
And that’s something else to consider: Polls don’t take into consideration the electoral map, meaning they only reflect the so-called “popular vote.”
The popular vote results in 2016 were 48 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Trump. But even though Trump lost the so-called “popular vote” by 2 percentage points, he still won the election.
We often hear that “demographic changes of the future are the Democrats destiny”, but actually if you take the projections for the allocation of the Electoral College among the states post-2020 census, Trump would’ve done slightly better than he did even in 2016. #elections pic.twitter.com/ct18TkX96d
— Bruce Stanford (@brhstanford) May 5, 2019
And so though polls currently show the president losing to everybody from former Vice President Joe Biden to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, Parscale nevertheless remains confident that Trump will win in 2016.
And not just win, but win in a landslide!
“I think we win Florida, yeah,” he said to Garrett. “I think we win in an electoral landslide as of today.”
Watch the full clip below, and again, take note of Garrett’s face:
Now, despite the facts backing Parscale’s narrative about polling being dead, some among the left have taken to mocking him:
— T.J. Maxwell (@TJMaxwellJr) June 19, 2019
let the campaign of lies begin. none of the current data supports this, with Biden +10 or more in rust belt states. maybe he plans to steal another 50 million facebook accounts. #LiarInChief #Individual1 #StableGenius #DonTheCon #ShitShow #CampaignOfLies pic.twitter.com/8gnmtUF1jx
— Jerry Sonderson (@JSonderson) June 18, 2019
Let’s keep it simple for him. Raise your hand if you believe Brad Parscale is a moron. pic.twitter.com/xesJV5KSEJ
— El Guapo (@GeneralNoche) June 19, 2019
Polling is so hard. Hard for Trump people. But only if they’re negative. Maybe @parscale isn’t up for the job of campaign manager- if polls are too hard for him.
— 4julygirl (@4julygirl) June 19, 2019
The more conspiratorial types among the far-left have meanwhile begun to blame Trump’s potential 2020 victory on Russia … AGAIN:
If Trump campaign is confident of large victory despite large deficits in polls, they must already have plans to spread lies and steal the election in any way possible.
— C Chavez (@chvz2032) June 18, 2019
definitely want to call into question the validity of polls so you can easily explain away trump working with the Russians to hack the 2020 election.
— LibDbag (@NerdLegz) June 18, 2019
Trump fired his pollsters for leaking data, because he must keep narrative that “our polls are better and accurate” and all others are wrong.
So when Russia/Saudis hack the vote, when GOP just throws Dems votes away, Trump can claim superior methods.
US Elections are not fair.
— Nelstradamus (@138Nelliecat) June 19, 2019
Besides, polls are obsolete now that Russia determines our elections. Who needs polls?!
— La Fourchette (@lafourchette) June 19, 2019
@parscale Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. We will be 👀 ng for Dirty Don and his help me Russia, and numerous tricks used.
— Nancy Sapp (@SappNancysapp) June 19, 2019
Polling was wrong in 2016 @parscale because you shit goblins cheated with Russia’s help. You will go to jail for this. I know you’re directly involved.
— cailllou is GMO (@sciencemilkcow) June 18, 2019
Just to be clear, the Department of Justice concluded last year that efforts by Russian operatives to affect the 2016 election were NOT successful.
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