Pollster Nate Silver thinks Hillary would ‘almost certainly’ have won if it weren’t for one thing

President-elect Donald Trump said on Sunday that when it comes to his critics, “every week it’s another excuse” to explain why he won the November election so convincingly.

…and with this being a new week, we have a new entry.

Citing an article he wrote on November 6, FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver concluded Sunday that Hillary Clinton “would almost certainly” have won had it not been for FBI director James Comey deciding to reopen the probe into the email scandal that dogged her throughout the campaign.

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Not that Silver absolved Russia for its alleged role, saying Clinton’s fate was decided by a tag-team effort of Comey’s announcement and Russian President Vladimir Putin’ heavy thumb.

Silver gave Clinton an 81 percent chance of victory prior to Comey’s Oct. 28 announcement, noting that it dropped to 65 percent afterward and continued to fall.

As additional “evidence,” the statistician noted that “late-deciding voters broke strongly against Clinton in swing states.”

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And Silver was pretty definitive that had the election been held the day before Comey’s announcement, “Clinton would almost certainly be President-elect.”

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Tom Tillison


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