A college professor with a phenomenal record for forecasting the outcomes of presidential elections is bucking many polls and political pundits by predicting a win for Donald Trump on November 8.
New York State’s Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth has correctly predicted the elections in the last 20 years, and he believes that record of success will continue this year.
Clip via Fox News Channel
Norpoth told “Fox & Friends Weekend” host Tucker Carlson that he uses two models to make his predictions: The “primary model” and the “swing of the pendulum model.”
“It usually turns out that the candidate who does better in his party’s primary … beats the other guy who does less well,” he told Carlson of his application of the first model, adding that he can track presidential primary elections from 1912.
Norpoth said the “pendulum swing” model is based on 200 years of presidential elections, which strongly favor a change in party after one particular party has occupied the White House for eight years. In this case, he believes the electorate will call for a change after Democrat Barack Obama’s eight-year run.
He said that he’s so confident of his prediction that he’s even placed money on it.
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