Nate Silver says betting on Hillary is ‘a lot less safe’ than Democrats think. Here’s why…

[sharenow]

At this point four years ago, President Obama enjoyed a relatively narrow statistical lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney that Hillary Clinton enjoys over Donald Trump. As history would have it, that ‘narrow’ lead would eventually manifest itself into an overwhelming electoral victory for Obama.

Which begs the question, given the recent demographic shifts and trends that have favored Democrats over the last several years, should we expect a similar result in 2016?

Statistician Nate Silver, ABC correspondent, editor-in-chief of ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight blog, and, incidentally, someone who correctly predicted the outcome in all nine swing states in 2012, thinks there are two key differences this year.

And he lays out his logic in a series of tweets – logic which, incidentally, should have Democrats more than a little bit concerned:

All that said, Clinton still has the advantage and Trump has an uphill climb to win.

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Scott Morefield

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