Trump’s VP selection potentially pivotal

Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.

Pundits have pretty much settled on a “40% ceiling” for Donald Trump.

In other words, the 45th President’s disapproval ratings are so expansive that it will be difficult to go beyond his loyal MAGA base. On the downside, Biden’s “30% disapproval rating” could translate to success for alternative candidates capable of sufficiently splintering the Democrat vote. That might result in Trump’s re-election.

Most mature adults remember 1992. Bill Clinton was elected president with 42% of the vote. A year before the election, George H.W. Bush looked impregnable. Enter Bush’s nemesis, Ross Perot. Perot spoke to a lot of Americans who were not Democrats. Many were independent. In the end, Perot received 19% of the popular vote nationally. It didn’t win a single state for the Texas businessman. But it was enough to cost Bush re-election.

Republican Party Divide Clearly Evident

The Trumpless debates have clearly marked the divide. The Neo-cons were well represented. Former Governors, Nikki Haley and Chris Christie headed the field. Ron DeSantis looks like the consummate conservative ideologue with each passing day. Why he chose to run in 2024 and not wait until 2028 remains a looming question. His recent debate success against California Governor, Gavin Newsome scored the Florida Governor some future points. The debate may have been a dress rehearsal for the 2028 election.

The candidate who stood out decisively was 38-year-old, Vivek Ramaswamy. While his message was uncannily reflective of Donald Trump’s “Make America Great” vision, it was done with eloquence. He gamely took on the establishment, even going one step further in his call for dismantling of 75% of the administrative state, while urging GOP Chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel to resign. He also brazenly criticized U.S. foreign policy, naming China as the primary global rival. His positioning of Russia was not enmeshed in 1970s-style, Cold War logic.

Why the V.P. Selection Matters

Trump backers would argue that the 40% ceiling is not high enough. Recent polling supports this assertion. It may be more like 44-45%. Close! Especially if there are alternative candidates who might split the Democrat vote. Yet it’s doubtful that Jill Stein or Cornell West will have greater than a 2% collective impact on the final tally. RFK, Jr. and a potential “No Labels” party might! The key may rest with younger voters.

Historically 18–24-year-old voters have not been especially active participants. This may change in 2024 with their renewed interest in Civics. In 2020, Millennials supported Biden on the wings of student loan forgiveness. This initiative has been a disappointment. Renewed cynicism has replaced the temporary optimism that was prevalent in 2021.

When any candidate has potentially 40% of the vote already in the bag, it becomes an election that is “theirs to lose.” Trump is not looking to win on “points.” To fully implement his agenda, he needs a landslide. This amounts to winning Millennials and “Gen Z’s.” Enter Ramaswamy.

Younger Voters Could Put Trump Over the Top

The Republican Party as a whole, has admitted to lackluster support from younger voters. While polling shows Ramaswamy with about 5% of GOP support, it is also acknowledged that this 5% may be as solid as Trump’s 40%. The question becomes, “is there overlap?” Vivek has pointed out repeatedly that many of these voters are first-timers. Smart money suggests that they are largely Libertarian. If they are not included in Trump’s 40% and would support Trump with Vivek’s endorsement, you have inched 5% closer to the crown!

Both Trump and Ramaswamy have concluded that the MAGA movement is not about one person. It is multi-layered. As both Ramaswamy and DeSantis have pointed out, it will take more than four years to correct systems flaws in the United States government. Conversely, twelve years might be more than enough time to get the job done!

Passing the MAGA Mantle

Should all go Trump’s way in 2024, the question becomes, “what next?”

We can assume that Haley, Christie and the Neo-con crowd will not get the job done. They are lost in 2003 and globalist ideology. To do anything other than embrace the status quo. is beyond both candidates. Their perception of the role of the administrative state is “inclusion,” not “demolition,” as Trump and Ramaswamy aspire. They see the President as an “elected ambassador to the administrative state.”

Ron DeSantis? His best option might be to drop out of the race, endorse Trump and finish his second term. Many saw him as an excellent VP option for Trump a year ago. Now, there may be too much “bad blood” between the two men to expect as much.

Trump needs a committed Jeffersonian, to maintain and continue his MAGA legacy. In witnessing Ramaswamy’s rhetoric, it has become evident that he has been campaigning to be Trump’s running mate. He describes the perfect Vice President as “a bulldog” who would fight to remind Americans that the founders envisioned “three branches of government, not four” and work hard to return us to that standard.

In outlining the V.P. role, the effervescent entrepreneur sounds like he is describing himself.

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