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Analysis indicates Dems could lose 41 House seats

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A new analysis of President Joe Biden’s downward-trending approval ratings finds that his Democratic Party could hemorrhage as many as 41 seats in the House during next year’s midterm elections, or close to as many as then-President Donald Trump’s GOP lost in 2018.

Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies told the Washington Examiner that it is not difficult to tie presidential polling to election outcomes and because Biden’s approval rating continues to decline, he believes the president’s party will lose close to the 41 seats lost during Trump’s midterm, or 34 more than the GOP needs to regain control of the chamber.

This, before states have even redrawn their congressional districts to comport with the 2020 Census.

“As baseball great Yogi Berra famously said, it’s deja vu all over again,” Bolger said as he released his analysis and findings.

Biden’s ratings have been tumbling for months, but his approval took a significant hit following the deadly and turbulent withdrawal from Afghanistan. That said, Bolger noted that he has discovered the Republicans made “significant inroads” with all voting blocs except younger Americans who don’t normally turn out in great numbers on Election Day anyway.

And he said that the congressional ballot is essentially tied — the first time that has happened since 2015, as President Barack Obama’s second term was waning.

“Joe Biden’s overall disapproval rating and, more challenging for him, his strong disapproval ratings are right where Donald Trump’s were just prior to the November 2018 midterm elections, when the party in power lost the House and numerous gubernatorial seats,” he said.

“I would hate to be in charge of candidate recruitment for Democrats because no Democrat in their right mind and a competitive seat would want to run in this political environment,” he added.

Meanwhile, Republican pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin revealed, “In terms of what to expect for the 2022 midterms, our polling of likely voters suggests that Republicans lead the Democrats in the generic vote for Congress 47%-46% with 7% undecided.”

“This means likely voters are more willing to support a generic group of Republicans rather than a generic group of Democratic candidates for Congress,” they added.

And, as Democrats become increasingly dispirited over the president’s falling support, GOP lawmakers and hopefuls are becoming more emboldened ahead of next year’s elections, and that enthusiasm is being led by the former president, in large part, the Examiner reported.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen, known for his accurate surveys, said that Trump’s voters are keyed up, noting that 75 percent of them are “very motivated” to cast ballots.

But November 2022 is still more than a year away, and Democrats are hoping that Biden can get some new traction and reverse his downward slide in the polls. Jonathan Zogby of Zogby Analytics told the Examiner that voters could move back towards Biden if the massive $3.5 trillion spending package he wants to be passed makes it to his desk and delivers on social welfare and infrastructure projects in their districts.

“The big problem Republicans face is can Biden and the Democrats get their monstrous infrastructure bill passed, which for them can buy enough time to provide more stimulus and pork to keep the economic balloon inflated. That would give Democrats the edge to retain majorities,” Zogby noted.

“If for some reason they cannot pass a big infrastructure bill, Republicans can focus on a not-so-great economy and Biden’s vaccine mandates, which threaten freedoms and hurt small businesses,” he noted further.

The Senate, at 50-50, is also in play for Republicans to recapture, Zogby and other analysts say.

“Overall, it’s close, and I see Republicans with more of an advantage right now to win both chambers — but not by huge amounts,” Zogby noted.

Jon Dougherty

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