Opinion

Iran: Khamenei at an inherent and deadly impasse

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Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.

In a speech on Wednesday, December 16, Khamenei sought to quell the endless eagerness of Rouhani’s faction and other gangs in the regime to negotiate with the United States. Khamenei first described the political change in the United States as a mirage that should not be taken lightly, just to get rid of the crises currently facing the regime. “The hostilities are not for Trump to end with his departure,” he said. “Do not trust this or that promise to make the future of the system better. These are not good promises, but the promises of the wicked! The lifting of the sanctions has been delayed for four years, and since 1995 all the sanctions were supposed to be lifted at once, but to this day not only have the sanctions not been lifted, but they have been increased,” he said. Khamenei took this as a proof of his claim that changes in the U.S. administration would not benefit the Iranian regime. He concluded: “Rather than think about lifting the sanctions, think about neutralizing the sanctions!” Khamenei added, “Of course, I am not saying that we should not seek to lift the sanctions. If the sanctions can be lifted, we should not delay even for an hour!” It is worth noting that these days, on the orders of Khamenei, the Guardian Council and the Expediency Council have re-examined the approval of all FTF clauses. Khamenei, however, clearly showed that he is a prisoner of paradox, which says that if you can lift the sanctions, do not delay for an hour, but on the other hand, says that you should seek to neutralize the sanctions.

What is the cause of this paradox?

The root of this paradox by Khamenei himself is nothing but the deadly deadlock in which Khamenei and the Velayat-e-Faqih regime are trapped. Khamenei knows better than anyone that he has faced significant street protests in recent years, including the January 2016 and November 2018 uprisings. That is, it is more and more in danger from a movement by the poor. The fact is that the middle and lower classes have their own specific and serious demands, and they want democracy and justice. They have pursued their demands in a non-violent framework. We are facing a movement of the poor, who are extremely dissatisfied and under pressure. When we talk about the underprivileged, we must remember that we are talking about at least half of Iranian society.

The fact is that “the deplorable living conditions with public dissatisfaction and distrust have severely degraded social resilience” (Salari – a member of the clerical gang of Rohani). This is where the paradox comes from.

It is clear that we are going to negotiate to lift the sanctions and that will have very serious consequences for the regime. “If Biden comes to power and if Iran returns to full compliance with its commitments, the United States will do the same,” Anthony Blinken, Joe Biden’s foreign policy adviser and possible foreign ministry option, told CBS News in recent weeks. “But we will use it (JCPOA) as a platform, we will work with our allies and partners to strengthen and prolong it. This provides a better ground for ‘collective pressure’ on other destabilizing activities in Iran. JCPOA should cover a wider area than nuclear, and extend to the region and missiles,” Blinken said.

Mansouri, the first commander of the Revolutionary Guards and the former ambassador of the regime in China, stated on December 17,2020 that this is “the way in which the future U.S. administration closes the components of the regime with all available means and weakens it.” The components of power are the same regional interventions by its militias in the region and the missile program. Khamenei had previously described the path as “endless degradation” (June 14, 2016), which began with a missile program, extended to the Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guards and human rights, leaving nothing of Velayat-e-Faqih.

The root of the bond

This deadly dead end is based on two pillars:

1- The first base goes back to the nature of the Velayat-e-Faqih regime. This regime arose from medieval dogmas and failed to meet the cultural and economic needs of the people in the 21st century. They cannot survive in a century to which nuclear weapons, terrorism, incitement to war abroad and gross human rights violations at home do not belong. Yet, this is the spirit of the Iranian regime. If either of the two pillars of the regime’s soul is taken away or abandoned, it means that it has broken the glass of its life by itself.

The second pillar is the reality of economic collapse and suffocation and the imminent prospect of an uprising of the hungry army, from which the regime is well aware that this time it will not be able to regain control.

The state-run Sharq newspaper wrote on Saturday, December 20, about the regime’s political and social deadlocks: “One of the most prominent manifestations of the November protests was the rapprochement of the middle and lower classes …. The upper decile to the bottom, which is about 14, 15 times … The class gap in Iranian society has become very deep. “Are we facing a movement of the poor?”

The crises of the regime inevitably manifest themselves in the face of the factions of the regime, which are referred to as wolf wars inside. The clerical faction sees the way out of the next uprising of the hungry army as rushing to negotiate. Khamenei knows that in these negotiations, the spirit and the glass of the regime’s life will be broken.

In this regard, Khamenei said: “The authorities should not destroy unity and unanimity (in the system) and dismember (the system)!” Then he continued, “There may be differences! Resolve these differences through negotiation,” he said immediately, sarcastically to Rouhani. “Is it not possible to negotiate and resolve the dispute with the internal element?”

However, Khamenei is not able to control the inherent and incurable crises of his regime, even for a short time, and to have a solution to this paradox. The escalation of the “wolf war” and the inability to contain it is proof of this claim.

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Hamid Enayat

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