While Dems ‘sound the alarm’ on projected Biden victory, RNC chief posts critical missing Trump data

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The U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report said it’s time to “sound the alarm” on a “likely” presidential victory by Democrat Joe Biden amid stunning data posted by Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel.

In a tweet, Dave Wasserman wrote, “I’d like to ‘sound the alarm’ on Joe Biden: he’s likely to win next week’s presidential election.”

Wasserman, it should be noted, correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election, writing two months before Election Day in FiveThirtyEight that there was an “unusually high chance Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.”

That, of course, was correct.

“First, Biden’s lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton’s was at this point. Second, there are far fewer undecided and third-party voters left to woo — reducing the chances of a late break toward one side,” Wasserman wrote in a column at NBC News on Tuesday.

“And third, the scores of district and state-level polls conducted by the parties to make spending decisions in down-ballot races generally align with national polls showing Trump running behind his 2016 pace, including in key states,” he added.

That said, there are still paths to a second Trump term, GOP strategist Karl Rove told Fox News’ “The Story” earlier this week. Rove said Trump would just need to win one of three rustbelt states he won last time: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.

“Think about it this way, if the president wins every state — let’s take the three Great Lakes states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin [and] put them to the side for a second. If the president wins every one of the rest of the states he won in 2016 and carries Pennsylvania, he’s got 280 electoral votes, 10 more than needed,” Rove said.

“If he carries Wisconsin out of those three states, only Wisconsin, he’s got 270. If he carries Michigan out of those three states and loses Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he’s got 276, so the path to victory lies in these states,” he added.

While national polling in those states does not look favorable to Trump, they didn’t four years ago, either. And this year, according to McDaniel, there appears to be a lot of data that national and even regional polling may be missing.

The RNC chief regularly posts post-rally data from battleground states showing rising support and enthusiasm for the president.

Following a Trump rally in Circleville, Ohio, on Saturday, McDaniel tweeted that nearly 19,000 people newly registered to vote, while more than 42 percent of rally goers were not Republicans and nearly 30 percent did not cast ballots in 2016.

“Our supporters in NEW HAMPSHIRE are ready to turn the state red for” the president, she wrote on Twitter after Trump’s Sunday rally in Manchester. She said the RNC recorded nearly 13,300 new registrations, 44.8 percent of the crowd was not Republican, and more than 20 percent didn’t vote in 2016.

She posted similarly encouraging data following Trump rallies in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

McDaniel noted that the crowd at a Trump rally in Lansing, Mich., drew more than 50 percent who were not Republicans, including nearly 33 percent who did not vote in the last presidential election cycle.

Following a West Salem, Wis., rally, she noted more than 12,000 new sign-ups, while adding that 56.4 percent of the rally attendees were not Republicans.

That said, a record number of Americans have already voted this cycle. As of Wednesday, more than 71 million total ballots have been cast, either by mail or during early in-person voting, according to Fox News.

That figure represents 51.6 percent of the total number of ballots cast in the 2016 election.

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Jon Dougherty

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