Polls indicate no bump for Biden after DNC as Trump’s swing state numbers close in

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As the Republican National Convention gears up for its final night culminating in President Trump’s nomination acceptance speech, it seems last week’s Democratic event did not give nominee Joe Biden any real momentum.

The former vice president reportedly has not seen the typical — and hoped-for — shift in his polling numbers following the Democrat National Convention last week and his post-convention support seems to be slipping in some swing states, as FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver noted.

(Image: NBC screenshot)

While the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Biden with an 8.4 point lead over Trump, that figure is well below the 9.3 lead just a few days prior. Hillary Clinton had a 5.7-point lead over Trump at this point in 2016.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three states that were considered solidly Democratic until Clinton lost them in 2016, have showed a narrowing margin in Biden’s lead over Trump and an even smaller lead than Clinton held in 2016.

Voters generally approved of Biden’s nomination acceptance speech last week, with about 7 in 10 in a CNBC/Change poll released Wednesday saying they had a favorable reaction. But while Trump is trailing Biden in some key swing states, there is a tightening in the margins.

The poll of six battleground states that was taken immediately after the DNC also showed that Trump’s approval rating rose as Americans’ fears about the coronavirus pandemic fell.

According to the CNBC/Change Research poll, voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin gave Trump a 48% approval rating, up from 46% two weeks ago. This came as those who shared they had  “very serious” concerns about COVID-19 was down to 45% from a previous 49%.

And in his highest number since the middle of May, 47% of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, across the six states, Biden was leading Trump by a 49% to 46% margin.

But while Democrats tout Biden’s lead, however slight, and Trump’s challenge to beat him in swing states, Biden’s continued hiding out and avoidance of openly speaking out against ongoing rioting have taken a toll. Even CNN anchors let the cat out of the bag this week, admitting that the deadly violence in Kenosha and other cities since the death of George Floyd is taking a toll on polling.

“What you said was happening in Kenosha is a Rorschach test for the entire country. I think this is a blind spot for Democrats. I think Democrats are hoping this will go away, and it’s not going to go away,” Don Lemon told colleague Chris Cuomo.

“The rioting has to stop. Chris, as you know, and I know it’s showing up in the polling, it’s showing up in focus groups. It is the only thing right now that is sticking,” he added.


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