Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model shows Bernie highly favored to win Democrat nomination

(Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)

Of all the Democrats still in the 2020 race, Sen. Bernie Sanders stands the highest chance of actually winning the nomination.

As of Friday morning, his chances stood at 46 percent (1 in 2) versus the significantly lower chances for the other remaining candidates, according to numbers expert Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight:

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: 20 percent (1 in 5)
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 5 percent (1 in 20)
  • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg: 4 percent (1 in 20)
  • Everybody else: 1 percent (1 in 100)

“FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate,” the site’s forecast reads.

“The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.”

See the official chart below:

And there it is …

This shocking revelation — a so-called “democratic socialist” is on the verge of becoming the Democrat Party’s 2020 nominee — comes amid the row in Iowa, where the Democrat Party has been accused of trying to rob Sanders of a rightful victory.

“Results from the Iowa Democratic caucuses were delayed by ‘quality control checks’ on Monday night. Days later, quality control issues have not been resolved,” The New York Times reported Thursday.

“The results released by the Iowa Democratic Party on Wednesday were riddled with inconsistencies and other flaws. According to a New York Times analysis, more than 100 precincts reported results that were internally inconsistent, that were missing data or that were not possible under the complex rules of the Iowa caucuses.”

“In multiple precincts, the candidate who received the most votes did not receive the most state delegate equivalents,” the Times noted.

In many cases, these “inconsistencies” involved Sanders. In one case, locals who voted for the senator were marked down as having voted for other candidates such as Deval Patrick or Tom Steyer:

By Friday, the majority of these errors had reportedly been remedied, thus causing Sanders to surge to the point that he was on the verge of winning.

Yet just as the senator was about to reign triumphant, Democrat National Committee chair Tom Perez reportedly intervened by calling for a “recanvass.” This, in turn, led to even more accusations of funny business.

“[T]he delegate vote was nearing a conclusion that jibed with the popular vote, thanks to Bernie Sanders’s prowess in the satellite caucuses, flexible voting sites for those who couldn’t otherwise participate—the one access-boosting innovation that remained. It’s at this point that Perez called for a ‘recanvass’ to count the votes again in Iowa,” David Dayen of The American Prospect notes.

“It’s at this point that Perez called for a ‘recanvass’ to count the votes again in Iowa. Waiting until the moment Sanders was poised to take the lead to demand a recount set the conspiracy-minded reeling, and with good reason. It was also Perez’s dumb attempt at self-preservation.”

Dayen added, “Perez never coordinated with the Iowa Democratic Party over this demand, and under caucus rules has no authority to do so. Authority notwithstanding, CNN’s Jeff Zeleny has reported that the DNC ‘has been running the show in Iowa for the last 48 hours.'”

That’s the same DNC that rigged the 2016 Democrat presidential primary elections in favor of then-nominee Hillary Clinton …

Speaking of which, the revelation from FiveThirtyEight also comes amid increased attacks from Clinton, who’s been relentless in her bashing of Sanders.

“You’ve got to be responsible for what you say and what you say you’re going to do,” she said in criticism of the senator during an appearance on “Ellen” this Thursday.

“We need to rebuild trust in our fellow Americans, and in our institutions. And if you promise the moon and you can’t deliver the moon, then that is going to be one more indicator of how we just can’t trust each other.”


On multiple occasions, Clinton has attacked Sanders and his fellow non-establishment candidates. In October she smeared candidate Tulsi Gabbard as a Russian puppet. Then during an interview last month, she began aiming her rage at Sanders.

“Honestly, Bernie just drove me crazy,” she said of his failed bid against her in the 2016 race. “He was in Congress for years. He had one senator support him. Nobody likes him. Nobody wants to work with him. He got nothing done. He was a career politician. He did not work until he was like 41, and then he got elected to something. It was all just baloney and I feel so bad that people got sucked into it.”

Then in a yet another interview, she was asked whether she still stands by what she’d said about Sanders while taking part in the just-released Hulu docuseries “Hillary.”

“In the doc, you’re brutally honest on Sanders: ‘He was in Congress for years. He had one senator support him. Nobody likes him, nobody wants to work with him, he got nothing done. He was a career politician. It’s all just baloney and I feel so bad that people got sucked into it.’ That assessment still holds?” the interviewer asked.

Yes, it does,” Clinton replied.


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