Pollsters don’t seem to have learned anything from the 2016 election and a former Clinton strategist believes they are missing it again with President Trump.
Wrong about Trump’s chances to secure the Republican nomination and to win the White House, many of the same pollsters are now declaring him as the least popular president in U.S. history.
But Mark Penn, a former pollster for Bill and Hillary Clinton and now the chairman of the Harris Poll, believes polling data is skewed against the president, showing him with low approval ratings as he discussed in an appearance on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends” on Wednesday.
Penn cautioned a careful reading of polls, explaining that the numbers don’t add up when looking at the type of people being polled. The”likely voters” polled during the election season gave way to “U.S. adults,” Penn elaborated, a category which can include anyone who is a citizen or not, and may or may not even be registered to vote.
The polls are getting it wrong again as they are currently showing Trump with low approval ratings, Penn said.
With polls showing approximately 95 percent of Trump’s supporters still backing him, the president’s approval rating should be close to the 46 percent of the popular vote he received in the election, not the low 40’s that is being reported, Penn explained.
With another 10 percent of the people who didn’t vote for Trump now approving, Penn said that should account for a few more percentage points.
The pollster added that polls need to present questions covering both sides of an issue and they generally have not even asked about Trump’s issues like tax relief, jobs, sanctuary cities or the border wall.
Penn concluded that he would put Trump’s approval rating at 48 percent.
“I think that’s a realistic assessment of where the electorate is,” Penn said. “It’s not as bad as people think. Nobody, him or the Democrats, has crossed 50 percent yet. That’s what they should be fighting for.”
Penn told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson that there is a “polling bubble” to be aware of.
“Well, we have to be wary of a kind of polling bubble,” Penn said on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” Tuesday.
“I mean, the polls have switched, many of them from voters to in fact to U.S. adults. And they don’t screen for either citizenship or likelihood to vote anymore. So, that’s a whole different group. And we haven’t come together after this election the way we normally come together after elections. And so, these polls really don’t reflect the electorate,” Penn said.
“And realistically, we are right back where we were on Election Day, and we are not set back the way most of these polls show,” he added.
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