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New demographic data suggests a shift in previous conclusions that may have consequences for the 2016 election.
The diversity of the nation and exit poll data previously led Republicans to believe winning the election depended on reaching out to Hispanic voters, as support among white voters had reached its maximum potential.
According to The New York Times:
“But a growing body of evidence suggests that there is still a path, albeit a narrow one, for Mr. Trump to win without gains among nonwhite voters.
New analysis by The Upshot shows that millions more white, older working-class voters went to the polls in 2012 than was found by exit polls on Election Day. This raises the prospect that Mr. Trump has a larger pool of potential voters than generally believed.”
Trump would benefit by garnering more white working-class votes than was assumed possible, and could win without increases among nonwhite or college-educated white voters, the Times reported.
But the presumptive GOP nominee could lose that narrow path if he loses well-educated voters or alienates any more non-white voters, groups where his ratings remain low.
The Times said:
“To win, Mr. Trump will need to make gains among white working-class voters. The earliest evidence, and polling this early can be quite inaccurate, suggests that he is doing that handily.”
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