The past two election cycles have pretty much shown that polling can be more apt to reflect the views of those polling than capture the views of those being polled, yet many are quick to tout the outcome when it supports their personal views — all of which being a long way to say polling is not to be trusted.
On that note, a new Rasmussen poll does run counter to a narrative popular with the establishment media — based on yet other polling — which is that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is best suited among the Republican primary candidates to defeat President Joe Biden.
According to the results, Donald Trump would defeat the 81-year-old geriatric president by a margin of 49 percent to 41 percent, according to polling from Rasmussen Reports. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would also beat Biden but by a laser-thin margin of 42 to 41 percent.
As for Haley? Turns out, according to Rasmussen, she would lose to Biden by two points, 36 to 38 percent.
Trump does better than the rest of the GOP field when it comes to black voters. The poll shows that Biden would get 57 percent of the black vote, while Trump earns a remarkably high 37 percent. DeSantis wins 29 percent of the black vote to Biden’s 56 percent, and Haley sees 19 percent to Biden’s 55 percent.
Another factor that stands out in the Rasmussen poll is that Trump bests Haley in support among women. The former president received 49 percent support compared to just 30 percent for Haley. She also loses out to DeSantis here, 37 percent to 30 percent. Trump is the only candidate to top Biden here. Keep in mind that Trump’s Achilles heel in 2020 was reportedly suburban women.
The Rasmussen survey also claims that 77-year-old Trump wins out among young voters, garnering 38 percent of the vote, compared to 30 percent for DeSantis, father to three young children himself, and just 22 percent for Haley.
Savvy voters are skeptical of all polling, as noted above the industry has been more about trying to steer opinion of late, not reflect it. There has yet to be a vote cast in the 2024 GOP primary but that changes on Tuesday, when Iowa voters weigh in first. DeSantis has essentially placed all his eggs in an Iowa basket and if he falls short it would be a hard blow to his presidential aspirations.
Then again, Trump lost the 2016 Iowa caucus to Sen. Ted. Cruz (R-Texas) and still went on to win the Republican presidential nomination. Most polling has Trump comfortably ahead in Iowa and DeSantis coming in third, trailing both Trump and Haley. The first report card on polling in the 2024 election season is just four days away.
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