Talking heads are touting job growth as an indicator of a healthy economy but econ experts warn that numbers often lie.
During an appearance on Fox Business’s “Mornings with Maria,” Strategic Wealth Partners investment strategist Luke Lloyd warned that numbers “can be manipulated to tell so many different stories” and the focus on “healthy” job numbers is a mistake.
“The fact that people are still using the job market to highlight the strength of the economy absolutely blows my mind,” Lloyd said. “I mean there are more people than every who have two jobs to support their family. That’s one of the main reason the jobs market looks so good. Combine that with the lowest productivity rates ever seen in history and the jobs market is essentially on its last foot and the shoe is about to drop.”
The true nature of the jobs market will not be clear until inflation returns to pre-pandemic levels of 2-3 percent, and companies respond accordingly, he said.
“The economy needs to reset and the jobs market is a big part of that,” Lloyd continued.
Job growth slowed for the second consecutive month, according to the Labor Department’s September payroll report, adding just 263,000 jobs, compared to 315,000 gained in August.
“The unemployment rate, meanwhile, unexpectedly dropped to 3.5%, returning to the historic low recorded in July as the size of the labor force decreased,” Fox Business reported. “Average hourly earnings also continued to rise, but at a slower pace of 0.3% last month, to $32.46 an hour. Slower wage growth could be evidence that inflation is starting to cool, although it also means that lower-income workers are being hit even harder by higher prices.”
Low income families are already struggling and OPEC’s announcement to enact the largest reduction in supply since the world’s infamous response to COVID-19 in 2020, will mean higher prices at the pump, adding to the unbearable burden many are carrying.
“I think its absolutely shocking that OPEC is looking to cut the supply,” Lloyd said. “This could be one of the biggest mistakes I think I’ve seen in a long time, since, you know, we printed all the money and the stimulus for the economy.”
OPEC plans to cut production by at least 1 million barrels/day, curbing any gains made against inflation and potentially pushing global economies into recessions.
“We are still in an energy crisis,” Lloyd warned. “Winter is about to come. When natural gas [price] is high, the world relies on oil and coal, not solar, not wind, right? So the combination of high demand and low supply could be very favorable for oil prices through the end of the year.”
Favorable for oil companies but not the general public, and when added to misleading jobs numbers and continued rate increases, liberal policies have created a trifecta of economic doom, Lloyd said.
“The stock market and economy was fueled by low cost debt but with [interest] rates rising, companies are getting shocked,” he said. “A lot of debt financed by companies are at floating rates. A lot of companies did not expect rates to climb this high this quick.”
Dealing with increased interest, many companies will slow hiring or begin to lay off their workforce, adding to supply-demand inequality and pushing inflation higher, while reducing jobs numbers, the outspoken free market advocate said.
“The thing frustrates me, Maria, is what got us into this situation in the first place,” Lloyd said. “Leftist policies like the push toward renewable energies and ESG investing led us into the world energy crisis we are having right now, impacting inflation. I don’t think people realize how bad it is over in Europe. People literally can’t afford to turn on their lights and we might be looking at a similar situation here in America soon.”
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