54% of Hispanic voters in California say they would vote to recall Newsom

Steven Hall, DCNF

More than half of Hispanics in California say they would vote to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to an Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll published Tuesday.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, showed Californians are split on the issue with 46% in favor of recalling Newsom and 48% are against it. Among Hispanics, 54% said they would vote to recall.

A majority of black and Asian respondents support keeping Newsom, while among whites, support for and opposition to removing the governor is evenly split, according to the poll.

Newsom’s response to COVID-19, a rise in crime in his state, and an uptick in unemployment are the major reasons why some people want to recall him. The special election is scheduled for Sept. 14, and 41 Californians are officially running against Newsom.

Support for removing Newsom increased in July, according to separate UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, with 47% of the 6,000 registered voters in California supporting removing Newsom while 50% opposed. In April, 36% of likely voters supported the recall.

“Democrats, at least in the middle of July, almost unanimously believed that Newsom will defeat the recall. I think that may be contributing to some complacency among those voters. Republicans, on the other hand, are confident that they can turn out the governor,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll. “I think the Newsom campaign really has to light a fire among the Democrats and say, ‘Look, the outcome is in jeopardy unless you get out there and vote.’”

Vice President Kamala Harris will campaign for Newsom amid the recall. Before becoming vice president, Harris had been California’s U.S. senator since 2017, and the state’s attorney general from 2011 to 2017.

Talk radio host Larry Elder, the leading Republican candidate, gained seven points compared to July’s Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll.

About 40% of Republicans surveyed were still undecided on who should replace Newsom, according to the poll.

A Republican primary depends on whether Californians vote in favor of recalling Newsom.  The challenger who receives the most votes finishes out the incumbent’s term in office, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

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