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If the Chinese plague can deliver Joe Biden the White House then anything is possible, even seeing the gavel ripped from the hands of 80-year-old Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.
With the new Congress convening this week, the first task is to elect a speaker and Fox News congressional reporter Chad Pergram shared an exhaustive online thread on how that’s not entirely out of the question.
As Pergram noted upfront, the remote voting established in the last Congress is not in effect until the new body implements it, which occurs after the vote for speaker.
Which means members must be present to vote, and with Pelosi enjoying the tightest majority in recent history, she can afford few losses — there were 15 party defections in the 2018 vote for speaker, which is greater than her current margin.
2) Starting the new Congress is inherently messy in a pandemic. The House of Representatives implemented “remote voting” in the spring.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
Pergram explained that because the old rules don’t carry over, everyone has to show up at noon on Sunday.
He also asked, “Is it appropriate for members who have tested positive, have been in quarantine or been exposed, be present today?”
4) But in the House, you can’t carry over rules from the 116th Congress to the 117thCongress.
That’s why everyone has to show up at noon today.
This poses an interesting, ethical question:
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
6) First, the House must take care of old business. The House meets, for the last time at 10 am et and adjourns the 116th Congress. The new, 117th Congress starts at noon et, per the Constitution.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
In explaining the first order of business, which is a critical quorum, Pergram goes into painstaking detail of how this will play out due to the pandemic.
8) The first order of business is a quorum call to get everyone there – pandemic style.
Under normal circumstances, all 435 House members-elect would crowd into the chamber to vote electronically and record their presence.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
10) The seventh and final group stretches from Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) through Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY).
Members are instructed to report to the chamber, record their presence and depart. We expect it will take until a little after 2 pm et to get the quorum there.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
“Watch to see exactly how many members show up for the quorum,” Pergram tweeted. “This will be crucial because it will dictate the size of the House to begin and how many votes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) needs to return to the Speaker’s suite.”
Pergram explained that Democrats will nominate Pelosi and the GOP will nominate House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif..
“The House will then begin a manual roll call with members filing into the chamber, again, in groups, and verbally announcing their vote,” he further explained.
And while Pelosi is expected to win this vote, Pergram notes the slim majority Pelosi has and gets into the “math” that could deliver different results, based on a number of developing events.
16) The House will observe a moment of silence to note the death of the late Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R-LA).
The House should start at 432 members and three vacancies: 222 Democrats and 210 Republicans.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
18) Letlow died from complications related to coronavirus. Rep.-elect Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) indicates she will not be present to take the oath office. So that’s how we get to at least three vacancies to begin the new Congress. Possibly more.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
20) Pelosi indicated she will seat Rep.-elect Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) after her six-vote victory over Democrat Rita Hart. But Hart has asked the House Administration to probe the outcome in that contest.
This is where it could get interesting.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
And this is where the math could get interesting, resulting in a possible Republican majority.
Stressing that “anything can happen during a pandemic,” Pergram makes a critical point that whichever candidate secures an outright majority of the entire House is the new speaker, not the most votes.
22) We always say it’s about the math. It’s about the math. It’s about the math. Well, the math really matters today. Whichever side has the most members present today is in the majority.
Period.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
24) And anything can happen during a pandemic. Even Pelosi has said that her foe in the Speaker’s race is COVID.
The successful Speaker candidate secures an outright majority of the entire House. Not the most votes.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
Pergram then breaks down how that could result in McCarthy wielding the speaker’s gavel for the next two years.
26) Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) voted present in 2019. But Cooper now says he will vote for Pelosi. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) voted “present” in 2019. Slotkin says she can’t support Pelosi.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
The process could get messy and drag out, and while rare, Pergram noted that it has happened before.
28) What if no candidate secures 217 votes? The House keeps voting until it picks a Speaker. A vote for Speaker hasn’t gone to a second ballot since 1923. House Speaker Frederick Gillett (R-MA) finally prevailed on the fourth ballot.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
29) The House burned two months and 133 ballots in 1856 before finally deciding Nathaniel Banks of Massachusetts was fit to be Speaker.
We just know it will take a long time to wrap all of this up. But we are advised that Sunday could be a very long day.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 3, 2021
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