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A mysterious, unnamed British gambler has reportedly bet £3.9 million ($5 million) on President Donald Trump winning reelection.
“The rich former-banker who is based offshore used a private bookie registered on the tiny Caribbean island Curacao for his risky gamble on today’s US presidential election,” The Sun reported early Election Day morning.
While the identity of the bettor remains unknown, a pal of his told the Sun that he’d spoken with “Trump camp insiders” before making the bet. And so whoever he is, it’s someone with ties of some sort to the president’s campaign.
A victory for the mysterious bettor would reportedly net him earnings of almost $15 million. Not bad.
“Word of this bet has done the rounds and we think it’s the biggest ever made on politics,” a source from the betting industry told the Sun.
But by no means is it the only pro-Trump bet.
Jessica O’Reilly, the PR director of the British betting company Ladbrokes, revealed that three out of every four bets received this past week have been for the president.
“Biden looks home and hosed according to the bookies and pollsters, but even at the eleventh hour punters are continuing to back Trump at the odds on offer,” she added.
Representatives from Paddy Power, an Irish bookmaker, likewise revealed that 93 percent of all bets made in the past 24 hours have been for Trump.
However, despite the influx of pro-Trump bets, Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden still remains the overall favorite, according to the Sun. And he too has received some high-figure bets in the past couple of hours.
“According to British bookmaker Betfair Exchange, an unnamed person in the UK placed £1million – or $1.29million – over the weekend on Biden beating incumbent Donald Trump. If Biden wins the contentious race against Trump, the bet-placer will get $1,986,903,” the Sun reported.
According to multiple sources, the 2020 U.S. presidential election is already the “most bet-on event in history.”
‘Absolutely remarkable’: Oddsmaker says 2020 election already the ‘most bet-on event in history’ https://t.co/ii4dcnld5j
— Conservative News (@BIZPACReview) October 29, 2020
Over $1 billion is reportedly expected to be exchanged through bets over the election, making the event a far bigger earner for bookies than either the 2016 presidential election or the annual Super Bowl.
“Offshore book Betonline.ag said last week the election has surpassed the Super Bowl in terms of dollars bet and will be the biggest decision in the site’s history since the Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor boxing bout in 2017,” USA Today reported Monday.
“William Hill international spokesman Rupert Adams said the firm had already seen more than £3 million wagered and expected that figure to eclipse £10 million (nearly $13 million) by Tuesday.”
Notice the use of foreign currency symbols like £. It’s illegal for U.S. bookies to offer bets on political events, though luckily for Americans who enjoy gambling, they may still pursue bets either with foreign bookies or privately among themselves.
Speaking of which, New York Gov. Chris Cuomo challenged the president to a bet two months ago after Trump suggested he could win New York.
“Whatever he wants to wager on his winning New York, I would like to take him up on it. Put your money where your mouth is.’ How much do you want to wager you’re going to win New York? You’re going to lose New York. Why? Because those who know the president the best like him least,” the governor said.
There was just one problem:
Cuomo: “Whatever he would like to wager on his winning New York, I would take him up on it.”
The state constitution says that people involved in wagering on the results of elections are prohibited from voting in them: pic.twitter.com/pPaf8H5DiQ
— Bill Mahoney (@mahoneyw) September 3, 2020
Now, there’s one big difference between election voting this years versus in 2016. While the majority of bets were also against Trump back in 2016, they were more against him then than they are now.
Forbes notes for instance that whereas the New Zealand-based betting market PredictIt had then-Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning at 80 percent in 2016, this year Biden is enjoying an advantage of only 63 percent.
“Prediction markets suggest the election outcome is still highly uncertain, implying just over a 60% chance that Biden will win the Electoral College,” a team of Goldman analysts reportedly said in a recent note.
“The upshot is that while financial market participants are taking a view on the election outcome, the implied probabilities suggest that they, like prediction markets, are taking a somewhat more cautious view of the publicly available polling data.”
In other words, virtually nobody is trusting the polls, not even some elected members of Congress — Democrat ones, to boot:
Democrat Rep. Debbie Dingell: ‘It’s Tightening Here in Michigan…Autoworkers Who I Thought Were Voting For Biden Told Me They’re Voting For Trump’ – https://t.co/h77gM013na
— Michael Snyder (@Revelation1217) October 29, 2020
Nobody except the “journalists” at outlets such as CNN, that is:
Fox is so chock full of pro-Trump commentary and rally coverage that viewers come away with the impression that this race is a whole heck of a lot closer to 50/50 than it actually is. The prime time narrative: “BIG ENTHUSIASM FOR TRUMP.” “MASSIVE.” “TRUMP CLOSING THE GAP…”
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) November 2, 2020