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Pollster who predicted Trump’s 2016 win predicts Trump electoral vote count in ‘high 270s at minimum’

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Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly — one of the few pollsters (if not the only one) who predicted President Trump’s 2016 win — projects another Trump victory in November.

“I see the President winning with a minimum [electoral vote count in the] high 270’s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity.

Like many Americans, Cahaly believes that election night will be chaotic because the large number of mail-in votes could delay the final result tally.

However, he predicts that President Trump will win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia — just like he did in 2016.

Most political polls being rabidly touted by the mainstream media claim that Joe Biden is leading in these battleground states.  But Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly warned Americans not to trust these polls, because they’re undercounting the “hidden Trump vote.”

“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote,” Cahaly observed. “There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the President that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily. These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”

(Source: Hannity)

Cahaly says this phenomenon of the “hidden Trump vote” is what accounts for many of the skewed polls being pushed by the anti-Trump mainstream media.

Indeed, anecdotal evidence suggests that some Trump supporters lie to pollsters because they’re terrified of being targeted by left-wing thugs, who might destroy their small businesses or torch their homes.

Last week, Trump campaign advisor Steve Cortes said the polls showing a massive Biden lead are inaccurate because they oversample Democrats.

The Trafalgar’s Group Robert Cahaly said the Hunter Biden influence-peddling scandal could also hurt Joe Biden in the final weeks before the election, despite the media’s attempts to downplay the bribery debacle.

Cahaly said President Trump must use the final debate this week to spotlight the scandal, which claims that Joe Biden used his political office for 47 years to sell out America’s foreign policy to the highest bidder.

“If the President uses this effectively at the debate, when a more bipartisan audience is paying attention and puts [Biden] on the spot, I think Biden might crack, kind of like he did in the primaries,” Cahaly said. “And if that happens, then the mainstream media is going to have to cover it.”

Political scientist Helmut Norpoth — who accurately predicted the winner of the past six presidential elections — confidently projects that President Trump has a 91% chance of winning the electoral college.

Norpoth’s statistical model has a 96% accuracy rate when analyzing U.S. presidential elections dating back to 1912.

helmut norpoth primary model election prediction 2020

“This forecast is unconditional and final,” Norpoth said. That means his forecast won’t change, regardless of what the polls and the media claim.

“Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win,” Norpoth said. “It seems crazy. But it’s not.”

Samantha Chang


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