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The polls being breathlessly touted by the media claiming that Joe Biden has a huge lead over President Trump are bogus and skewed because they oversample Democrats, says Trump campaign adviser Steve Cortes.
“Many of these polls have massive oversampling of Democrats,” Cortes said while rubbishing a RealClearPolitics polling average suggesting that Biden leads Trump by 10.2 percentage points in the national polls.
Steve Cortes said polls do matter and “we pay some attention to them.” However, he said polls are often wrong because they’re weighted in favor of Democrats due to oversampling.
Moreover, Cortes believes that Trump supporters are reticent to admit to a stranger over the phone that they’ll vote for President Trump because of the anti-Trump animus of the left’s vitriolic “cancel culture.”
Cortes said like the flawed polls in 2016 — which confidently predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide — the results can be manipulated and skewed, depending on which group is overrepresented in the sample.
Besides, Cortes said national polls don’t mean much because an Electoral College victory is determined at the local level.
Cortes said both the Trump campaign’s internal polls and the state polls show a much closer race.
(Source: Bill Hemmer Reports)
As BizPac Review reported, many analysts say the polls are much closer than the mainstream media are letting on.
Attorney Robert Barnes agrees. He said Republicans are registering more new voters than Democrats are. And this is a far better predictor of election outcomes than frothy polls, which are unreliable snapshots in time.
Barnes tweeted: “Voter registration statewide data has forecast a different election outcome than polls in dozens of presidential election polls since 2004. How often have the polls been right, and voter registration trends wrong? Never. What do voter registration trends forecast for 2020? Trump.”
In 2016, Barnes won $500,000 betting on a Trump win despite all the polls projecting a Hillary landslide. And he’s predicting another Trump victory this year.
Voter registration statewide data has forecast a different election outcome than polls in dozens of presidential election polls since 2004. How often have the polls been right, and voter registration trends wrong? Never. What do voter registration trends forecast for 2020? Trump.
— Robert Barnes (@barnes_law) October 12, 2020
Similarly, political scientist Helmut Norpoth — who accurately predicted the winner of the past six presidential elections — confidently projects that Trump has a 91% chance of winning.
Norpoth’s statistical model has a 96% accuracy rate when analyzing U.S. presidential elections dating back to 1912.
“This forecast is unconditional and final,” Norpoth said. That means his forecast won’t change, regardless of what the “polls” and the media claim.
Consider this: 11 days ago, many in the media predicted that Trump’s COVID diagnosis would be the death knell for his reelection bid.
Reality: Here’s President Trump less than two weeks later — dancing up a storm on stage after a raucous rally in Florida:
— Ryann McEnany (@RyannMcEnany) October 13, 2020
In contrast, this is what Joe Biden did yesterday:
- Forgot which state he was in. (Tweeted that he was in Pennsylvania when he was actually in Ohio)
- Forgot Mitt Romney’s name and instead referred to him as “a Mormon.”
- Forgot which office he was running for (claimed he was running for Senate)
Biden drowned out by Trump supporters amid ‘particularly bad day’ in Ohio: ‘Four more years!’ https://t.co/14gVTtA4cB
— Conservative News (@BIZPACReview) October 13, 2020
Here’s President Trump addressing a massive, enthusiastic crowd at his Florida rally yesterday:
— Dan Scavino🇺🇸🦅 (@DanScavino) October 13, 2020
And here’s a Biden campaign event in Arizona, where the polls have him leading President Trump. No Biden supporters showed up for the rally.
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