Crowd erupts as protesters are picked up and hauled out horizontally at Minnesota Trump rally

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Two protesters were thrown out of President Trump’s rally in Duluth, Minnesota as raucous supporters triumphantly cheered and chanted “Trump! Trump! Trump!” at them.

The brouhaha erupted at an outdoor airport rally. After the protesters interrupted Trump, security immediately descended on them and carried them away from the tarmac.

While the protesters were on the ground getting arrested, they shouted “Donald Trump, f*ck you!” before being carried out by police.

President Trump was campaigning in Minnesota amid mounting speculation that the blue state could turn red in November. No Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota since 1972.

A poll of 800 registered voters conducted on September 21-23 shows Joe Biden leading Trump by 48% to 42%.  The poll, which was conducted by MPR News/Star Tribune, has a margin of error of 3.5%.

Because polls are merely snapshots in time, it could be dramatically different today. Many political polls routinely oversample Democrats, so the results are often skewed to the left.

In late-August, a Trafalgar Group poll of 1,141 likely voters showed Trump tied with Biden in Minnesota. This ignited speculation that Trump could flip the state.

What’s noteworthy is that Minnesota was the birthplace of the latest Black Lives Matter protests and riots.

George Floyd died in Minneapolis on May 25 during a confrontation with police. His death was the catalyst for the countless Black Lives Matter protests, riots, lootings and uprisings in Democrat-controlled cities across the United States.

Minnesota is also home to anti-Trump Democrat Ilhan Omar and Attorney General Keith Ellison, who constantly slammed Trump when he was a congressman.

Political scientist Helmut Norpoth — who accurately predicted the winner of the past six presidential elections — confidently projects that Trump has a 91% chance of winning.

Norpoth’s statistical paradigm is called the Primary Model, which has a 96% accuracy rate when analyzing U.S. presidential elections dating back to 1912.

“The Primary Model gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance,” Norpoth wrote. “Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.  This forecast is unconditional and final.”

helmut norpoth primary model election prediction 2020
(Source: PrimaryModel.com)

Norpoth has repeatedly said polls are unreliable. He says the key predictor of a presidential win is the candidate’s success in his party’s primary elections. And those results project another Trump victory.

Joe Biden performed mediocrely in the Democrat primaries.

President Trump easily won this year’s GOP primary election because he’s the Republican incumbent. Even though he ran generally uncontested, Trump supporters still lined up for hours to vote for him in their respective states.

In the New Hampshire primary race, Trump got more than double the votes that Barack Obama got in 2012. Trump also scored a record turnout for an incumbent in the Iowa Caucuses.

Similarly, in 2016, Trump won the GOP primaries in a massive landslide against 16 other candidates.

During the 2016 primaries, Helmut Norpoth was one of the first to predict that Trump would win the GOP nomination despite the avalanche of naysayers. And he’s putting his money on President Trump again in November.

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Samantha Chang

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