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President Donald Trump has reached his highest approval rating ever, according to a YouGov trend line which has tracked the number throughout his first term.
The technique — LOESS smoothing — is utilized to portray general trends of an average that is in flux.
“I’ve been getting really good polls, some over 50%, except for one Fake Poll done by @ABC NEWS, which gives NO INFORMATION about the sample, R or D, or anything else. They did this last Election, with one week to go, down 12 points, and I won. They are disgusting Fake News!” Trump tweeted Monday, without making any reference specifically to YouGov.
In recent days, the president has also tweeted or retweeted several additional polls that show him up nationally or leading in battleground states.
Heads will explode. Trump up in Michigan. https://t.co/LvBMhN7WrQ
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) August 28, 2020
MN and NH are very possible flips to Trump. Also seems like Maine is now on the radar as a potential flip. https://t.co/Cgyr6YoKEf
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 1, 2020
As for the YouGov analysis, Trump’s approval-disapproval deficit of 8.2 percent is the smaller of his presidency since March at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic when he had a deficit of 8.1 percent, The Daily Caller reported.
While YouGov has a slight Democrat bias, Five Thirty Eight’s Nate Silver says the organization’s polling is 88 percent correct.
Meanwhile, Wall Street executives are being advised to adjust their clients’ portfolios more towards and expected Trump victory, Fox News reports.
“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Marko Kolanovic, quantitative strategist at JPMorgan, wrote in a note to investors.
Kolanovic noted further that the ongoing violence and riots in blue cities are having a distinctly negative effect on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s chances.
Fox News adds:
Kolanovic’s team looked at the academic work of Omar Wasow, who found that whether protests were deemed peaceful or violent had a major impact on the outcome of U.S. election results between 1960 and 1972. He said public opinion was swayed by how the media covered and framed the demonstrations.
Richard Nixon won the 1968 presidential election on a ‘law-and-order’ platform — the same one that Trump is running on this year.
But also, there are major differences in media coverage from the late 1960s compared to now, when the country literally runs on a 24-hour news cycle.
“Weakness will never beat anarchists, looters or thugs, and Joe has been politically weak all of his life. LAW & ORDER!” Trump tweeted June 2, repeating that mantra many times since and almost daily now.
On Monday, Biden finally condemned some of the violence, but certainly not in any authoritative way.
“Shooting in the streets of a great American city is unacceptable,” the former Vice President said during a Monday speech. “I condemn this violence unequivocally.”
That came well after his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, tweeted a plea June 1 for people to donate to a fund used to bail out rioters and violent protesters.
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) June 1, 2020
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