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Trump ties Biden in Minnesota poll: First time a Republican could win state in 48 years

August 21, 2020 | | Print Article
A new poll shows President Trump tied with Joe Biden in Minnesota — a longtime blue state. (screenshot)

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A stunning new poll shows President Trump tied with Democrat Joe Biden in Minnesota — a longtime Democrat stronghold that hasn’t been won by a Republican since 1972.

The poll of 1,141 likely voters was conducted from August 15-18 by the Trafalgar Group.

The survey shows that 46.5% of respondents said they plan to vote for Trump. Meanwhile, 46.9% of respondents plan to vote for Biden.

The survey has a 2.98% margin of error, which puts Trump and Biden in a statistical tie.

If President Trump won Minnesota, it would be a landmark victory, since it would be the first time in 48 years that the reliably-blue state would carry a Republican. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won Minnesota by a narrow 1.5%.

Minnesota poll Trump Biden tie
(Source: Trafalgar Group)

What’s noteworthy about the Minnesota poll (aside from it being a longtime blue state) is that Minnesota was the birthplace of the latest Black Lives Matter protests and riots.

George Floyd died on May 25 during a confrontation with Minneapolis police. His death was the catalyst for the countless Black Lives Matter protests, riots, lootings and uprisings in Democrat-controlled cities across the United States.

Minnesota is also home to Trump-hating Democrat Ilhan Omar and Attorney General Keith Ellison, who constantly bashed Trump when he was a congressman.

It would make sense that because of the Black Lives Matter protests, Minnesota would swing even more in favor of a Democrat over President Trump.

But the latest poll suggests the riots have had the opposite effect, which does not bode well for Joe Biden.

That said, polls are merely a snapshot in time and are not generally reliable — as evidenced by how wrong most were when they confidently predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the Electoral College in a landslide four years ago.

Many political polls routinely oversample Democrats, so the results are frequently skewed to the left.

Democrats have cranked up the hysteria and shrieked apocalyptic projections ever since President Trump was elected. Basically, Democrats and their media minions have amplified dystopian visions of America’s future in a bid to scare people into voting Trump out.

However, this strategy appears poised to backfire. Longstanding psychology research suggests that the scarier the coronavirus crisis and the riots are, the better President Trump’s chances for winning are.

Why? Because multiple studies on terror management show that people prefer leaders with strong, alpha male personalities during times of uncertainty and upheaval.

This is where Trump’s brash personality is advantageous over Biden’s perceived wimpiness.

Hundreds of experiments and field studies since the 1980s suggest that the more you scare people, the more they’ll flock to an outspoken, charismatic leader who promises to protect them. Does anyone view Sleepy Joe as a protector?

Political scientist Helmut Norpoth — who accurately predicted the winner of the past six presidential elections — says President Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November.


(Source: Fox Business)

Professor Norpoth has repeatedly said polls are unreliable. The key metric to focus on is a candidate’s success in his party’s primary elections. And those results project another Trump win, Norpoth said.

Joe Biden performed mediocrely in the Democrat primaries. His running mate Kamala Harris also did terribly.

President Trump is the Republican incumbent, so he easily won this year’s GOP primary election. Even though he ran generally uncontested, Trump supporters still lined up for hours to vote for him in their respective states.

In the New Hampshire primary race, Trump got more than double the votes than Barack Obama got in 2012. Trump also scored a record turnout for an incumbent in the Iowa Caucuses.

Similarly, in 2016, Trump won the GOP primaries in a massive landslide against 16 other candidates.

Norpoth is a political science professor at Stony Brook University in New York. He first predicted Donald Trump would win the presidency in March 2016 based on statistical analysis.

During the 2016 primaries, Helmut Norpoth was one of the first to predict that Trump would win the GOP nomination despite the avalanche of naysayers in the media and political punditry.

And Norpoth is putting his money on President Trump again based on his statistical model, which has a 96% accuracy rate when analyzing U.S. presidential elections dating back to 1912.

Black journalist: Race riots are based on lie that white cops kill black men all the time

 

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