Professor who accurately predicted Trump’s 2016 win ups the ante ‘bigly’ for 2020

Screengrab Fox Business

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The professor who predicted President Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the 2016 election isn’t being persuaded by the liberal media naysayers reporting that the president’s reelection chances are in trouble.

In fact, Professor Helmut Norpoth is upping the ante in the 2020 election, saying Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November.

For those paying attention to the news cycle, in addition to a hard pivot by the media back to the perils of the Wuhan Flu and calls for another shutdown, there has been a steady diet of reports that Trump’s campaign is also ill — it’s almost like there’s some sort of “JournoList” that liberal reporters subscribe to or something.

But Norpoth, a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University, is convinced that Trump is doing just fine and he appeared on Fox Business Network’s “Lou Dobbs Tonight,” where he made his 2016 prediction, to say so.

“I’m predicting that Donald Trump has a 91% chance of being reelected, the professor boldly declared on Thursday’s show.


(Source: Fox Business)

As host Lou Dobbs noted, Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted 24 of the last 26 presidential elections.

Pointing to a CNN model that showed presumptive 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden running away with the election, gaining as many as 400 electoral votes, Dobbs asked Norpoth about the “science” behind such polling.

“Well, I don’t go by opinion polls, I go by the real polls,” Norpoth responded.

“I go by what happens in the primary elections,” he continued. “And in those primary elections, especially in the early ones, Donald Trump did very well, and Joe Biden, as many of you may have forgotten by now, struggled in New Hampshire, where he came in fifth.”

Norpoth said the early primary votes provide “a very powerful message for predicting what is going to happen in November.”

Stressing that New Hampshire is an open primary state, where all parties can vote, he said of Biden’s poor performance, “I don’t know of any presidential nominee who did so poorly in New Hampshire who went on to win in November.”

Recalling Norpoth’s success in 2016 while “watching nonsense from so-called clever fellas” in the liberal media, Dobbs said he enjoyed watching the results come in.

“I have to tell you, it was so much fun,” he said. “I was laughing out loud through the evening to watch this. It’s just great fun to see everybody so wrong.”

Dobbs asked the professor if anyone in the media has ever turned to him for help in making election predictions.

“I’m still waiting,” Northop replied with a laugh. “I’m still waiting for the phone call even though I did work in the newsroom of the “New York Times” for many years on election nights.”

A graphic was displayed showing just how wrong some were in 2016.

After reviewing the predictions, Dobbs gave his guest the final word, asking Norpoth how his forecast looks.

“Well, all of these predictions that you mentioned are all based on polling, national polling, state polling,” he said. “And I think the big flaw last time was in some critical battleground polls that they used to make the forecast for the final tally — and these battleground state polls were way off.”

“I don’t know whether people doing these polls have figured out what the problem was and have fixed it,” Norpoth concluded. “So, until I learn about that and things are going better, I’m not so worried.”

Tom Tillison

Senior Staff Writer
[email protected]

The longest-tenured writer at BizPac Review, Tom grew up in Maryland before moving to Central Florida as a young teen. It is in the Sunshine State that he honed both his passion for politics and his writing skills.
Tom Tillison

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