President Donald Trump will skate to a 2020 landslide if the booming economy remains on fire in 2020. That’s the consensus on Wall Street and according to several different election-prediction models.
Despite the impeachment and the nonstop negative media coverage of his presidency, Trump is galvanizing support in his base and is winning over Independent voters on the strength of his sizzling economy.
Mark Zandi is the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, a global financial-research group. He says President Trump will easily win reelection, according to three different economic models that Moody’s used to gauge the 2020 race.
The Moody’s prediction model has been accurate since 1980 — missing only once in its four-decade history. That was in 2016, when it wrongly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the electoral college.
“The election is Trump’s to lose,” Zandi told Bloomberg. “Trump wins if the economy and his approval rating are about the same a year from now as today, and turnout is typical.”
Zandi warned that if the economy tanks or the turnout among Democrats surges unexpectedly, then Trump could lose. However, most economists say there is little chance of a near-term recession. Moreover, the stock market is on fire, and unemployment is at record lows.
Furthermore, political pundits have noted that there is a dismal lack of voter enthusiasm for the current crop of Democratic presidential candidates, so a massive spike in voter turnout is unlikely.
In fact, three different Moody’s Analytics prediction models (the Pocketbook Model, the Stock Market Model, and the Unemployment Model) project that Trump will easily surpass his 2016 electoral college landslide against Hillary, when he won by 304-227.
The three prediction models show President Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. You need a total of 270 votes to win.
The Moody’s projections were based on how consumers feel about their own financial situation (the Pocketbook Model), their assessment of the stock-market gains under Trump (Stock Market Model), and unemployment data (Unemployment Model).
In the Stock Market model, Trump wins by a 289-249 margin, while under the Unemployment Model, he wins by 332-206. According to the Moody’s Analytics report, the stock market’s record highs under President Trump has buoyed consumer confidence.
“Trump often touts the stock market as a measure of his administration’s economic policy success, and he may be onto something. Even though the stock market can and at times does move up and down independent of what is going on in the economy, the S&P 500 has a statistically significant relationship with voter sentiment in the lead-up to presidential elections.”
Under Moody’s Pocketbook prediction model, Trump’s chances for winning are off-the-charts: He gets 351 electoral votes — an absolute landslide.
“Our ‘Pocketbook’ model is the most economically driven of the three,” the Moody’s Report said. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition. This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
Meanwhile, President Trump’s approval ratings have climbed in the past few weeks — illustrating that the Democrats’ sloppy impeachment is backfiring.
New Polls: Black American support for President Trump:
— Patricia Dickson (@Patrici15767099) December 2, 2019
Obviously, things could change. And it’s never a good idea to get overconfident (look what happened to Hillary in 2016).
But for now, a Trump reelection appears all but certain. That said, Trump supporters should not get complacent. It’s unlikely President Trump will, either.
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