Before Democrats even took the stage in another 2020 primary debate Tuesday, stunning new election model data showed they may not even have a chance against President Trump.
Three different economic models used by Moody’s Analytics showed that a booming economy will help Trump easily ride into 2020 with a reelection victory.
(Video: Fox Business)
Trump’s Electoral College votes could surpass those in the 2016 election, according to the models gauging how consumers feel about their situations in the present economy, prospects for the stock market and unemployment numbers.
Fox Business host Lou Dobbs noted Tuesday on “Lou Dobbs Tonight” that the models seem to indicate that Trump is “effectively a shoo-in” for reelection and that the data is “pretty impressive.”
Moody’s found that Trump would win in the “Pocketbook Model” with 351 to 187 electoral votes. The “Stock Market Model” showed a win with 289 to 249 electoral votes while the “Unemployment Model” showed a Trump victory with 332 to 206 electoral votes.
“Our ‘pocket¬book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” Moody’s report said. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
Kelly Sadler, director of communications at America First Policies and America First Action and former assistant to President Trump, told Dobbs the stunning data is a result of “how people feel about the economy,” noting that 90% of Americans “have had a boost in their wages” under Trump.
Sadler pointed out that the booming economy is not an accident, but directly “attributable” to the president’s policies.
Progressive policy proposals by Democrats, in contrast, would ultimately “devastate the economy,” Sadler added.
Dobbs noted that the average US family income is up $5,000 dollars per family under Trump.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the report, said. “It’s about turnout.”
“In 2020, President Trump will be as much the nongeneric candidate as he was in 2016, and Democrats may also nominate a candidate who is a break from past party nominees. Further, if the 2018 midterms are anything to go by, turnout in 2020 could be the highest in living memory,” the report continued.
The model results may be surprising for some who would point to Trump’s consistently low favorability ratings, but Moody’s noted that those numbers have been relatively stable even if low.
The Moody’s models had a perfect track record of prediction until 2016 when “unexpected turnout patterns” caused an error that delivered a predicted win for Hillary Clinton. Adjustments have been made for the latest projections, however.
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