Former Vice President Joe Biden’s apparent plan to ride Obama’s coattails into the White House is starting to look like less of an inevitability with a recent poll showing Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren quickly approaching his lead.
The worst news for him — her increasing popularity shows no signs of slowing down.
The CBSNews/YouGov Battleground Tracker poll reveals that Warren is quickly closing the gap between her and front-runner Joe Biden, who has somehow managed to hold on to his number one spot despite endless gaffes and groping. Despite his plentiful — and apparently “charming” — mistakes, he is looking at a solid 600 delegates as opposed to Warren’s 545. Bernie Sanders is a distant, but solid third with an estimated 286 delegates.
While these delegate estimates are super early, they are realistically the only ones that matter. But in a race with so many candidates, it is also extremely important to note the “second choice” of voters who may not see their preferred candidate make it to the general election. When it comes to those numbers, there seems to be a fairly strong consensus centered around Senator Warren.
When asked who their first choice candidate would be, respondents were cleanly split between Warren and Biden, with only one percentage point separating the two.
But when it came to second choice candidates, the difference was much more pronounced. Warren received 25 percent of that vote, whereas Biden only sees 13 percent of people coming to him should their primary candidate lose.
For all their grandstanding, however, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, and Beto O’Rourke are seeing second choice-numbers that are larger than their first choice numbers, meaning they are the “hold-your-nose-and-pull-the-lever” candidates. People will settle for them if there is absolutely no other option.
But will any of this matter when it comes down to the actual election? In 2016 it was made quite clear that polls were near meaningless, as almost all saw Hillary Clinton winning by an unfathomably large margin. Trump had almost no chance, statistically speaking, but pulled off a major upset on election night where votes massively outweighed poll numbers.
It is important to note here that while Elizabeth Warren is steadily gaining support, Joe Biden is not losing ground. He’s maintaining his numbers pretty well, but his overall problem is stagnation.
This could be due in part to the frequency of his “mis-speakings” or because identity politics tells Democrats that old, white men rank at the very bottom of the social justice food chain.
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