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If latest Iowa poll is any indication, Biden could be in trouble

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A new Iowa poll from Change Research contains good news for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and some concerning news for former VP Joe Biden, who is still considered a frontrunner in the race to get the presidential nomination from the Democrat Party.

Warren leads the poll, with the Massachusetts senator jumping to double digits at 28 percent. Sanders and Biden tie for second with 17 percent. Trailing by over 10 percentage points in a poll should be a concern for Biden and Sanders, but especially Biden, who was leading the second he announced his candidacy. Since then, however, the former vice president has made a handful of viral gaffes that have made people seriously question his ability to lead and to go up against President Donald Trump in 2020.

(Screenshots from YouTube)

Coming in third in the poll is South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 13 percent. Though he’s won plenty of media attention, the mayor’s candidacy seems to have stalled in recent weeks.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) is also struggling following a bad debate performance where Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) rightfully questioned Harris’ controversial history as a prosecutor. Harris scored 8% in the new poll.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Beto O’Rourke follow with 3%, and everyone else is barely hanging on with 1-2%.

Following the 2016 presidential victory of President Donald Trump with most polls calling for Clinton as the clear winner, polls should always be taken with a grain of salt.

This specific Change Research poll, for instance, was conducted entirely online. Change Research polls are also not included in RealClearPolitics polling averages, which is typically the go-to place to see how candidates are doing.

And while this poll certainly shows Biden’s popularity slipping (likely with mostly younger people, who are more typically the target for online polls), he is still leading in most other polls.

A Monmouth survey, for instance, has him leading at 28 percent and Warren trailing at 19 percent. That poll was conducted by telephone (which typically targets older voters).

The Change Research poll was conducted from August 9 to 11, while the Monmouth poll was conducted from August 1 to 4.

 

In the betting market, people are getting cold feet about Biden too. The bookmaker Ladbrokes now has Warren as the favorite to win the Democrat Party presidential nomination, with Biden slipping a bit in their odds.

“It looks like the betting market is going a little cold on Biden despite his general lead in the polls,” Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes, said to Newsweek. “Warren seemed to get a boost after the last set of debates and, in particular, seems to be performing well in Iowa.”

Ladbrokes, a British bookmaker, has Warren at 9/4 odds to win the nomination and Biden at 11/4.

A YouGov/The Economist poll of likely primary voters also had Warren and Biden practically tied for first place. Biden was at 21 percent and Warren was at 20 percent.

While these polls are not enough for Biden to sound the emergency alarms quite yet, they are enough to suggest that faith in him may be slowly crumbling.

His many gaffes only suggest more are to come, so, despite being a frontrunner, it’s not hard to see that Biden has a rough road ahead of him.

And while Warren may be seeing a bit of a boost in popularity, she’s a bit of a gaffe machine herself. She hasn’t faced any real direct attacks during the race yet, so it’s safe to count her as a bit untested compared to her competitors.

It may not seem like it, but there is a long race ahead for these folks and fortune can change in an instant, especially when the fight is to go up against President Trump, a politician who has a knack for debating and directly taking on competitors.

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