Wall Street insiders polled; see if they’re betting on Trump or Biden in 2020

NEW YORK, NY – MARCH 23: (Photo by Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)

A lot of smart folks think that Wall Street has a special knack for reading the future. If that is true, then President Trump has another six years to work his magic, Making America Great Again.

More than 70% of knowledgeable Wall Street insiders surveyed by RBC Capital Markets believe Trump will win re-election in 2020.

Still, the poll showed that former Vice President Joe Biden is seen as the “most stock market-friendly” of the many potential Democratic presidential candidates.

CNBC reported Friday on a letter written to RBC’s clients. “Most expect Trump to win in 2020, but there’s still some nervousness around the event,” wrote Lori Calvasina, RBC’s head of U.S. equity strategy … Sixty-seven percent “of our March 2019 survey respondents believe that Joe Biden is seen as the most acceptable Democratic candidate by the stock market for the White House. No other candidate got a significant number of votes.”

The survey polled 141 equity-focused institutional investors after the Mueller investigation was concluded.

The “least acceptable Democratic candidate for the stock market: is Sen. Elizabeth Warren, from Massachusetts. Second least acceptable is Sen. Bernie Sanders, from Vermont. Unfortunately, Sanders is also seen as the second most likely Democrat nominee, following Biden.

If Biden fails to enter the race or doesn’t win the nomination, Trump would likely gain more support because most other Dem candidates are viewed as anti-business.

Clearly, presidential elections have an impact on financial markets deriving from what traders believe the elected candidate will prioritize in office. The Dow Jones gained more than 450 points in the two days following Trump’s election in 2016 and leaped nearly eight percent through the end of that year as investors reveled in the likelihood of coming corporate tax reform and increased spending.

Truth time … CNBC’s article admitted that “What Wall Street expects isn’t always a good predictor of what will happen, however. During the 2016 election, a CNBC Fed Survey found that 80 percent of respondents saw Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, well ahead of the 13 percent who thought Trump would win.

“At that time, Wall Street economists thought that Ohio Republican John Kasich’s policies were best for the economy and for the stock market, though he ultimately lost the party’s nomination to Trump.”

Neocon never-Trumper Bill Kristol seems worried, trying to sell the contrarian view that no one is buying …

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Victor Rantala

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