Artificial intelligence technology that has correctly predicted the winners in the past three presidential elections is showing bad news for Hillary Clinton and the political pundits who have all but coronated her.
MogIA, developed in 2004 by Sanjiv Rai, showed Donald Trump as the projected winner of the presidential election, with a 25 percent higher enthusiasm rate than President Barack Obama had when he won in 2008, CNBC reported.
It uses data from platforms like Google, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube in the United States to make its determination and has correctly predicted the Republican and Democrat primaries.
“If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest,” Rai told CNBC.
Rai’s data shows that the candidate with the most social media engagement won every time.
“If you look at the primaries, in the primaries, there were immense amount of negative conversations that happen with regards to Trump. However, when these conversations started picking up pace, in the final days, it meant a huge game opening for Trump and he won the Primaries with a good margin,” he said.
“While most algorithms suffer from programmers/developer’s biases, MoglA aims at learning from her environment, developing her own rules at the policy layer and develop expert systems without discarding any data,” he told CNBC.
The model is not perfect, however, as it cannot measure sentiment.
“Even if Trump as more engagement it might not be positive,” Rai warned. “Either way, the AI system thinks the race is closer than it seems.”
In other words, if this software is correct the worst case scenario for Trump is that the race is far closer than mainstream media has reported.
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