Hillary Clinton’s confidence in poll numbers could cost her the election according to a top American political scientist who predicts a Donald Trump victory on Election Day.
“My forecast says that he’s going to win 52.5 percent of the two-party vote, that would give Hillary 47.5 percent. I attach something like 87 percent certainty that he’s going to win,” Professor Helmut Norpoth told U.K. based i news
Norpoth, from the Department of Political Science at Stony Brook University in New York, has correctly predicted the last five winning U.S. presidents using a statistical model based on results from previous elections.
Many pollsters would disagree with Norpoth, as many polls are suggesting that the Democratic presidential nominee is ahead of her Republican opponent.
The latest results for the IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll, which has most accurately predicted the results of the last three elections, show Clinton with a 3-point lead over Trump. Yet a Bloomberg Politics poll released Tuesday showed Trump leading with 2 points in the key swing state of Florida where he has 45 percent of the vote compared to Clinton’s 43 percent.
“My forecast is not poll-driven. I don’t live by the polls so I don’t die by the polls,” Norpoth told the i news.
He explained that eight years of Democratic control in Washington may well be a factor that works to Trump’s advantage.
“It’s very difficult for a party that’s been in the White House for two terms to get a third term, it’s not very common,” Norpoth said. “Obama openly won by about half the margin in 2012 compared to 2008 so that shows that the trajectory of the vote for the Democrats is down.”
He also believes Clinton could be her own worst enemy, being too confident in poll results.
“I think that’s been a problem all along,” Norpoth said. “She was complacent when she ran against Obama in 2008 and lost and I think she believes too much of the hype that she’s ahead in the polls.”
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