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Most political analysts acknowledge that, given recent demographic shifts, any Republican will have tremendous obstacles to overcome in order to win a national election. If Donald Trump has any chance at all, he not only must appeal to his base, he’s got to change the electoral map entirely.
This means winning states Republicans haven’t won in years. So, can Trump pull it off?
While speaking to reporters at a Politico Playbook breakfast Friday morning, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus suggested exactly that, bringing up the possibility that Donald Trump could very well win seven states Mitt Romney lost in 2012.
Those states are Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota.
Win at least five of those states, and you’re looking at a Trump Presidency. Here’s what the map looks like if Priebus is correct, with Trump winning 315-223:
According to Priebus, “I think he will [win Wisconsin] … I think he can win Ohio, I think he can win Florida, I think he can win Pennsylvania. I think he can win Iowa. I think he’s going to put Minnesota and Michigan in play. Minnesota is a state that is hard to predict sometimes. And I know, obviously, they went for Walter Mondale in ’84 … but people like Jesse Ventura, Gov. Tim Pawlenty … every once in a while, Minnesota flips and I think that Donald Trump can play in states like that.”
Even some liberals agree with at least most of the states potentially in play. Huffington Post Global Editorial Director Howard Fineman recently wrote a column acknowledging the possibility of a Trump victory. One of the reasons? “There are also at least five large blue states in which he could compete, especially for the votes of those former Reagan Democrats.” Fineman writes, “Those states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and, yes, Pennsylvania.”
This, from a website that uses the following tagline at the bottom of every article about Trump:
“Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.”
The Huffington post actually agreeing with the RNC chair? Is hell freezing over, or could they both be onto something?
Not everyone agrees. University of Virginia political analyst Larry Satabo’s May 3 prediction had Trump with only 191 electoral votes.
Where the Clinton-Trump matchup starts in our Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings pic.twitter.com/IpIryVRJFZ
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) May 4, 2016
This race definitely has a LONG way to go!
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