Time-honored economic models predict Republican presidential victory

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A GOP win for the White House is in the future, according to economic models that have predicted presidential election results correctly for years.

Two models are forecasting a Republican win while a third, by Moody’s Analytics, predicts a Democratic victory based in part on President Obama’s increase in approval ratings, reported The Hill on Monday.

Despite the political shaking of GOP front-runner Donald Trump, the models show the Republican Party securing the win in the bid for president.

“As economists this is a very unusual election and there’s a lot more uncertainty introduced this time around that could upset the balance and the historical relationship of how marginal voters vote,” said Dan White, an economist with Moody’s Analytics, according to the Hill.

Yale professor Ray Fair’s model has accurately predicted all but three presidential races since 1916. “If there’s any time in which personalities would trump the economy it would be this election,” Fair said.

Fair’s model relies on three components: “per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters before an election, inflation over the entire presidential term and the number of quarters during the term growth per capita exceeds 3.2 percent,” according to the Hill.

The model by Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz, with correct predictions every time since 1992, is also seeing a Republican victory in November. Abramowitz’s model “measures the incumbent president’s job-approval rating by the end of June of the election year; the economy’s growth during the first half of the year, especially during the second quarter; and how long the incumbent party has been in the White House,” reported the Hill.

Abramowitz noted that the president’s approval rating is still a strong factor in predictions even though the president is not running. Obama’s approval rating has risen 3 percentage points, according to Moody’s Dan White, who added that the chaos in the GOP race may actually be helping the president and his party.

“The gains lately could be construed as a reflection of what a mess the primary process has become in recent weeks,” he said.

White added that a Trump variable could not be added into the model to examine how the GOP front-runner’s methods affect outcomes.

“The model doesn’t know or care if there are two or 10 candidates,” he said. “It knows the economics and whether marginal swing voters will keep the incumbent party in or not.”

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Frieda Powers

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