Political science professor says Trump presidency is 97% sure thing based on proven model

The coronation of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump continues in earnest.

Nevermind that many a cable news pundit has already declared Trump the winner, a political science professor has all but guaranteed the real estate tycoon will be the next president.

Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth says Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating likely Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton in the general election, and if rival Bernie Sanders pulls off a miracle, Trump has a 99 percent chance of defeating him.

Norpoth’s forecast is based on “a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election,” The Statesman reported.

The newspaper noted that the primary model “works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election,” and has an accuracy rate of 96.1 percent.

“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president, if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party,” Norpoth told The Statesman.

As for the GOP primary, with four states having already voted, Trump has 81 delegates out of a possible 2,340, with 1,237 needed to win the nomination. And while many think it’s in the bag for Trump, he’s not there yet.

The professor’s forecast is based on studying a pattern of voting in the presidential election that does not assume who would be the party nominees.

“You think ‘This is crazy. How can anything come up with something like that?'” Norfolk said, “but that’s exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in ‘96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012.”

Tom Tillison


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