Yesterday we reported on the flawed methodology of a recent CNN/ORC presidential poll. It turns out we’re not the only ones who are head-scratching.
Fox News senior political analyst Brit Hume appeared on “Special Report” with Bret Baier and said that recent polls indicating that President Obama will win a second term are fundamentally flawed.
“My sense about this is fairly simple,” Hume said. “We’re looking at a national race, which is, for all intents and purposes, tied. We are looking at a set of state polls in the battleground states that suggests President Obama is leading — he is leading in most of these polls. And most reporters would look at that and say, ‘Well, if that’s the case, it looks like President Obama is going to win.’ And that is what a lot of people think. That is kind of the conventional wisdom.”
At this point, Hume brought up the skewed polling data used in many recent polls, including the CNN/ORC telephone survey we reported on yesterday in which 41 percent of those surveyed were Democrats and only 20 percent were Republicans.
“However, a number of those polls have a remarkably large number of Democrats in the sample — more Democrats, in some cases, than turned out by percentage on Election Day four years ago, which was a big year for the Democrats,” Hume continued. “They don’t expect to have as big a year. So, those polls are troubling. Now, it would be unprecedented for this many polls reflecting a similar outcome to be wrong, which is why I think people are reluctant to draw that conclusion. But there’s something wrong here.”
Tonight we’ll receive the results of the only poll that matters — the presidential election itself.
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