When competing campaigns release polling data with vastly different results, one campaign is either grossly incompetent, or its publishing skewed numbers in a desperate attempt to look like a winner.
In my opinion, Allen’s West’s Democratic opponent, Patrick Murphy, is desperate and intentionally misleading his financial supporters, and the voters.
In late September, the West campaign released a polling memo that said West was leading Murphy 52 percent to 41 percent, a 11-point lead.
Within 48 hours, the Murphy campaign began touting two polls conducted by Democratic polling firms.
One taken by Massachusetts-based Kimball Political Consulting said Murphy was leading West 49 to 45. The validity of that poll was questioned by The Palm Beach Post’s George Bennett in a post that should have gotten way more attention than it did, Murphy touts GOP poll that shows him edging West; sample skewed toward Democrats.
The other poll Murphy touted, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research, said Murphy was leading West by 9 points, at 52 to 43 percent. The poll was immediately published by liberal sites like the Huffington Post, and repeated as fact by every liberal I know.
Who are we to believe?
In the most recent poll, conducted by the nonpartisan StPetePolls.org, West is leading Murphy by 12 points, at 52.6 percent to Murphy’s 40.6 percent. Credit where credit is due, this was reported as the legitimate poll that it is by The Post’s Andrew Abramson, New poll shows Hasner, Frankel in dead heat; West with 12-point lead over Murphy.
StPetePolls.org poll’s numbers match almost exactly the poll released by the West campaign on Sept. 29.
Take this to the bank: Right now, given the margins of error, West is leading Murphy by anywhere from 8 to 15 percentage points.
Releasing junk polls is a common tactic used by desperate campaigns to keep donations flowing. If donors don’t think a candidate has a chance, they stop giving money.
The Murphy campaign is desperate.
Forget individual donations, if Murphy’s real poll numbers don’t improve very quickly, the Democratic Party will walk away and reallocate that money to a race where the Democratic candidate has a better chance of not being massacred.
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