Arnold’s Ramblings 12-28-2011

Now all of my readers know that Arnold is a moron, so please just try to accept what is coming. This major political insanity regarding the “raising of middle class taxes” is really about maintaining social security premiums at the level they have been for decades. Now that this is established, if the government was attempting to really create jobs, the reduction in social security would be in the employer portion – not the employee portion. But wait (as they say in the TV infomercials), isn’t social security going bankrupt?

Well, that is what the parties said last year and earlier this year. Isn’t that why we had the Simpson Bowles Commission and other commissions? So, if there is a concern about the solvency of social security, certainly reducing the income (to social security) makes NO SENSE! Yet the Democrats insist upon reducing the premiums to the employees (only), and raise taxes on the rich. The Republicans insist upon reducing the premiums to the employees (only) and reduce the increase in spending by the government. Never mind that the increase in scheduled to be 9 percent with an inflation rate of 3 percent. Is there something wrong with this picture? Why does spending have to rise at three times the rate of inflation? Why does spending have to rise at all? Isn’t $4 trillion enough? Apparently no amount of spending by the government is enough! So Democrats and Republicans are both completely unreasonable and unrealistic. But, what is new?

What do I know? Arnold is against any “stimulus,” but if a stimulus is to done, it makes much more sense to just send out checks the way it was done under George W. Bush.

The Republican primaries appear to be indicating that the nominee will be Mitt Romney. If this is the case, the choice is Obama, the progressive and Romney, the progressive. The same choice as 2008. Arnold cannot understand why the Republicans can not nominate a legitimate conservative against a legitimate progressive, and then see who the people actually want. Arnold does not know the result of the match up, but then of course the American people will be able to decide what they want. And if they want a Progressive, they will have it. If they want a conservative they will have it.

  • The DJIA should have some year end rally and then early in 2012 the DJIA should start to correct substantially.
  • Gold could still have one more rally before a significant decline to maybe $1000.
  • Oil could still rally further maybe to $120 the barrel.
  • The dollar should start to rise again and continue to rise next year.
  • Interest rates are still in a trading range and nothing seems likely to change this anytime soon.
  • Real estate pricing is still declining and should continue to decline (more so) into next year.
  • The economy looks somewhat weaker; we will have to wait until retail sales are announced next year.



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Arnold Goldin
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