As all of you who know Arnold know, Arnold is not particularly sentimental, but last week Arnold read an article regarding the season and Americans response to the present situation which he felt needed to be shared. The article appeared in the Detroit Free Press, which detailed how around the country Americans are paying off the layaway balances of many “impoverished” American’s Christmas gifts to young children. It is an interesting and fascinating phenomenon.
The National Association of Realtors has apparently dramatically overstated home sales for the past five years. It should be fun when the lawsuits start. Many people made purchases of homes for investment and purchase to live in the homes based upon expectations from the volume of transactions. The National Association of Realtors essentially drove the real estate market, according to these stories.
On a happy note, many of you my wonderful readers have asked me what Michael has been doing. As you are aware, we (Michael and I) have attempted to monetize Arnold’s Ramblings, but so far that has not happened. We have pursued various ideas, none of which have worked; and we are still are still trying to accomplish this objective. One of the major issues we have is that any product or service that we offer will need to be a product or service that Arnold himself uses, and so far there have been no takers.
- The DJIA should rally into year end then after the first of the year, the DJIA should fall significantly.
- Gold could have one more rally into the new year, then fall big time.
- Interest rates are still in a trading range.
- Oil has fallen somewhat back below $100 a barrel. Oil still should have at least one more big rally up.
- The dollar should start to rise into the new year.
- Real estate pricing still is falling around most of the US.
- The economy still is looking better, but retail sales have cooled. We will have to see.