Arnold’s Ramblings 11-30-2011

Hopefully you all had a great Thanksgiving. I know I did!

There are all manners of disparate news items that individually do not make sense, and collectively do not fit into a mosaic. Here are some examples:

  1. For Black Friday there were at least 60 acts of violence, yes violence, during or at shopping events – including pepper spraying, shootings, knifing, etc.
  2. There were a series of flash mob incidences, whereby up to 60 (usually late teens) ransacked retail establishments.
  3. Retail sales for Black Friday rose anywhere from 10 percent to 15 percent depending upon the source.
  4. The Kuwaiti government collapsed.
  5. Congressman Barney Frank will not seek re-election due to redistricting. Ha? Democrats control everything in Massachusetts.
  6. According to the New York Times, President Obama will not campaign for white blue collar voters.
  7. Los Angeles Police are removing the Occupy “people” in LA.
  8. New Zealand re-elected a conservative, but this time it was a landslide.

You can get the idea. All of this data, but none of it is correlative. And none of it fits into a cohesive pattern. What does it all mean?

It would appear as though the Democrats are going to re-nominate President Obama and the Republicans will nominate Mitt Romney. Should this come to pass, the choice between the two candidates is not really a significant choice, just more of the same.

  • The DJIA should experience a sizable year end rally, followed by a major drop after the first of the year.
  • Gold could have one more rise up to a maximum of about $2000 the ounce followed by a major drop down to about $1000.
  • Oil is still testing $100 and probably will surpass $100 and look to $120, but I just don’t see the price beyond $120.
  • The dollar is still performing well and should continue to do so.
  • Interest rates are still in a trading range, but the 10 year and 30 year Treasury yields are starting to rise.
  • Real estate valuations are still falling in most markets.
  • The economy appears to be rising somewhat due to Black Friday and retail sales. This is probably the last major shopping excursion for most people for years.



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Arnold Goldin
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