Hopefully you all had a great Thanksgiving. I know I did!
There are all manners of disparate news items that individually do not make sense, and collectively do not fit into a mosaic. Here are some examples:
- For Black Friday there were at least 60 acts of violence, yes violence, during or at shopping events – including pepper spraying, shootings, knifing, etc.
- There were a series of flash mob incidences, whereby up to 60 (usually late teens) ransacked retail establishments.
- Retail sales for Black Friday rose anywhere from 10 percent to 15 percent depending upon the source.
- The Kuwaiti government collapsed.
- Congressman Barney Frank will not seek re-election due to redistricting. Ha? Democrats control everything in Massachusetts.
- According to the New York Times, President Obama will not campaign for white blue collar voters.
- Los Angeles Police are removing the Occupy “people” in LA.
- New Zealand re-elected a conservative, but this time it was a landslide.
You can get the idea. All of this data, but none of it is correlative. And none of it fits into a cohesive pattern. What does it all mean?
It would appear as though the Democrats are going to re-nominate President Obama and the Republicans will nominate Mitt Romney. Should this come to pass, the choice between the two candidates is not really a significant choice, just more of the same.
- The DJIA should experience a sizable year end rally, followed by a major drop after the first of the year.
- Gold could have one more rise up to a maximum of about $2000 the ounce followed by a major drop down to about $1000.
- Oil is still testing $100 and probably will surpass $100 and look to $120, but I just don’t see the price beyond $120.
- The dollar is still performing well and should continue to do so.
- Interest rates are still in a trading range, but the 10 year and 30 year Treasury yields are starting to rise.
- Real estate valuations are still falling in most markets.
- The economy appears to be rising somewhat due to Black Friday and retail sales. This is probably the last major shopping excursion for most people for years.