The Line For Tickets To Success

ticketafpreviewBy George Noga


Global Warming Fear Mongering is Utterly Disintegrating

If all you ever read or watch is the traditional media that presents counter-factual and grotesquely distorted advocacy journalism disguised as news, you would believe in America: (1) income distribution is becoming less equal; (2) there is no income mobility; and (3) the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer. Not one of these shibboleths is true.

Invariably, those who argue there is stagnation, no mobility and growing inequality cite statistical categories to make their case. They track income cohorts over a period of time – usually the standard quintiles often reported. They make three critical errors. First, they assume they are looking at the same people each time. Second, they focus only on abstruse statistics instead of real people. Third, they fail to take immigration and population increase into account.

“When looking at a line, stagnation is all you can see; when looking at real people, the advancement becomes obvious.”

The fundamental error is to look only at a line instead of individuals in the line. One illustration makes it easy to see what really is happening. Let’s say millions of Americans formed a line to receive a ticket to “success”, i.e. as you work your way up the line toward the front you achieve more and more success. The line keeps moving forward at a steady pace as people at the front receive their tickets. Simultaneously, everyone in the line moves ahead; those in the middle move toward the front while those toward the rear work their way to the middle.

Moreover, 20 million new people have entered at the back of the line in the past ten years. Overwhelmingly, these constitute immigrants (legal and illegal) who enter at the very back of the line. Consequently, the line doesn’t get shorter; in fact, at times it lengthens. The median of the line never seems to move much; actually, it even moves backward if more people enter the back of the line than receive tickets at the front of the line.

Those who demagogue and divide Americans by income see and report only on the line and not individuals in the line. From a purely statistical and non human perspective, there appears to be stagnation. When focusing on real people rather than on the line, it is easy to see people continually advancing and getting ever more and more success. This is precisely what is happening today in America with regard to income mobility, stagnation and inequality.

The most recent U.S. Treasury Department study of income mobility tracked individuals over a 10-year period. It was conducted by trained economists and was not political. Based on a sample of 100,000 tax returns for Americans over age 25 the findings of the study were:

1. Nearly 60% in the poorest income cohort (the bottom quintile) moved to a higher quintile. Of this total, 25% jumped 2-3 quintiles and 5% ascended all the way to the very top.

2. In the fourth quintile (second from bottom) 50% moved to the middle or higher quintile; 17% moved to the bottom quintile.

3. Inflation-adjusted median income increased 25% with 70% increasing real income. This occurred despite the huge influx of young workers and immigrants at the very back of the line.

4. The income of those in the bottom quintile increased 90%.

5. The income of the highest quintile increased just 10%. The income of the top 1% declined 25%. More than 50% of the highest 1% dropped to a lower quintile.

“When we focus on real people instead of elliptical, transitory statistics, we see America remains the land of opportunity,
the last best hope for the world, a shining city on a hill.”

What the study shows is straightforward, i.e. the movement between quintiles results from the natural bidirectional progression of individuals consistent with the phases of their life. People enter the workforce in a low quintile, advance to higher quintiles throughout their working lives, perhaps even to the top 1% for one year (and only one year) when they sell a home or business and then move to a lower quintile after retirement. When we focus on real individual people instead of abstruse, elliptical and transitory aggregations of income cohorts, we see America remains the land of opportunity, the last best hope for the world, a shining city on a hill. For real stagnation, just look at Europe.

Global Warming is Disintegrating Before Our Very Eyes

Long time readers know I am a sucker for a good global warming debunking; I have been experiencing withdrawal symptoms of late and I need my fix – so here it is!

  • Antarctic sea ice is at or near record high levels for the past few years.
  • The arctic icecap has rebounded a great deal in the past 4-5 years.
  • Polar bears are thriving and at or near record populations.
  • NASA data show less heat is trapped in the atmosphere than any climate model predicted.
  • The same NASA data prove far more heat escapes into space than climate models show.
  • Sea level is actually dropping.
  • Cholera and malaria are declining well below levels associated with warming.
  • Mount Kilimanjaro is experiencing increasing snow cover.
  • Global temperatures have been steady to declining for more than a decade.
  • Deaths from extreme weather have plummeted.
  • Global cyclone activity is near historic lows.
  • Frequency of major US hurricanes has declined as oceans lose heat content.
  • Tornadoes are down dramatically.
  • Droughts are not unusual by historical standards.
  • There is no evidence of unusual global weather patterns.
  • New CERN research shows cosmic rays (the sun) responsible for temperature changes.
  • Scandals continue to rock the climate fear movement.
  • The UN IPCC has been exposed as nothing more than unscientific activists.
  • Many serious scientists are predicting a global cooling trend.
  • Scientists and laypeople alike are abandoning the warming religion in droves.
  • Data from moons and planets in our solar system continue to track earth’s data which means climate is not anthropogenic unless there are ETs scattered throughout our solar system.

So, who will be the last person on earth who believes in the global warming fairy?

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