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Arnold’s Ramblings 8-16-2011

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Give me a break! What is it that we as a country are doing to solve our problems? Nothing. The president and Congress are not solving any of our problems. The special committee that has to report back before Thanksgiving regarding the rest of the spending cuts will almost certainly agree to a huge tax increase. Personally, I am opposed to tax increases, but raising taxes on those earning more than $250,000 (back to Clinton-era rates) would generate, at most, $70 billion per year, and some studies suggest $50 billion per year. What the United States needs to do is balance the budget. We need to spend no more than our income as a country; then we need to pay down the debt. That has not happened in more than 100 years. During the Clinton administration, the “surplus” came after counting in the Social Security surplus, so the debt still rose to reflect the Social Security debt.

Now that the Republicans have lost one candidate (Tim Pawlenty) and have a new candidate (Rick Perry), who will be the Republican nominee? I do not know. But what I do know is that when President Obama is matched with a “generic” Republican, Obama loses by up to 8 points, but when matched with any named Republican, Obama wins. This would strongly suggest that the voters are not satisfied with any of the Republican contenders.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recovered, and may still test the lows, but the lows should hold for now, rallying back near the previous 2009-to-2011 highs.
Gold looks to be at or near its highs, and we should see a sharp correction.
Oil has corrected back to the low 80s, and it would strongly appear as though the highs are in.
The dollar has held up really well, and should start to rally from here, soon.
Interest rates continue to be extremely low for the 30-year Treasury.
Real estate pricing is still low, and falling in virtually every market.
The economy continues to be weak.


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